In Europe, there is fear that Russia will attack NATO in the next two years

“Something could happen very soon.” European governments fear that Putin’s “window of opportunity” is now.

The next two years could represent the most dangerous period for Europe since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and for several European governments, the ideal time has come for the Kremlin to act.

The warning appears in the newspaper, which mentions several political and defense officials, this Monday. The central concern is that Russian President Vladimir Putin sees in the current situation a opportunity to test the cohesion of NATO and the real willingness of the United States to defend its European allies.

Although this alarmist assessment is not consensual within NATO, there is fear within the alliance that this is indeed the ideal time to actfrom Putin’s point of view, at a time when Trump is still in the White House, transatlantic relations are weakened and the European Union has not yet completed strengthening its military capacity.

“Something could happen very soon — there is a window of opportunity for Russia”said center-right Finn and member of the European Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee, Mika Aaltola. “The US is withdrawing from Europe, transatlantic relations are in tatters and the EU is not yet fully prepared to take on responsibilities alone.”

Several European and NATO officials consider, on the other hand, a Russian land offensive against an Alliance country to be unlikely. Moscow remains very committed to the war against Ukraine. But this does not eliminate the risk of a limited, ambiguous or hybrid actiondesigned to divide the allies.

The scenario considered most likely by some leaders who spoke to Politico is not a classic invasion, but a operation that creates uncertainty about NATO’s response. It could be a drone attack, an operation in the Baltic Sea, an action in the Arctic or a maneuver involving the so-called Russian “ghost fleet”. The Russian side’s objective would be exploit gray areas and force allies to discuss whether or not Russian action would justify the activation of the famous Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which states that an attack against one member must be considered an attack against all.

Aaltola believes Moscow may prefer an operation that does not involve a direct ground incursion into a heavily defended area such as the Polish border. Such action would require fewer resources, avoid immediate escalation and could still put Western unity to the test.

Putin may try to “scale horizontally” against another neighbor to avoid a “humiliating” negotiation with Ukrainebelieves in turn Gabrielius Landsbergis, former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Lithuania.

In this scenario, the newspaper specializing in European politics recalls that since the large-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, European defense spending has increased significantly, but the concrete effects of these investments take years to materialize. And the EU has been clear on this point: the European roadmap for military readiness aims for 2030 as the year in which the EU must be prepared to credibly deter adversaries and respond to aggression.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk recently stated that “the greatest threat to the transatlantic community” is “the ongoing disintegration of our alliance”. If Putin is evaluating Trump’s commitment to NATO, the Internal political dynamics in the United States could certainly influence the Kremlin’s decisions.

A senior European defense official confesses to Politico that, if the Republicans have a bad result in the mid-term elections in November, Trump could harden his stance against NATO and Europe to win back his political base before the 2028 presidential elections. Decisions such as the recent North American one of 5000 troops from Germany are signs of this.

Some Baltic officials have already sought to relativize the risk. Estonian President Alar Karis said Russia is “very busy in Ukraine” and does not believe the Kremlin has sufficient capacity to open a war against the Baltic states — an assessment shared by several NATO diplomats and European defense officials.