Just a few weeks ago, when the new European climate report was presented, it was rather unclear whether the big El Niño could still be expected this year. On average, the climate phenomenon has a warming effect on the Earth and is particularly noticeable in the Pacific region. But the signs have already increased, including particularly high sea temperatures. Now the US Meteorological and Oceanographic Agency NOAA reports updated estimates: The probability that El Niño will occur between May and July 2026 is now 82 percent.