The United Arab Emirates (UAE) in recent days has intensified efforts to end the war with Iran, joining Saudi Arabia and Qatar in calling on US President Donald Trump to give negotiations a chance, according to several people familiar with the matter.
The talks were prompted by these countries’ fears that any retaliation from Tehran, should hostilities resume, would plunge the Gulf economies into chaos, the sources said. In separate calls with Trump, leaders of the three U.S. allies said military action would not achieve Washington’s long-term goals on Iran, according to these people, who requested anonymity because the topic is sensitive.
The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
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Abu Dhabi’s position indicates a change of stance in a country that was a direct target of Iranian attacks and, until recently, adopted a tougher line than its neighbors towards Tehran.
According to the sources, the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar differ on the type of diplomatic agreement that the US should seek and on how strict the stance should be towards Iran. Still, the rapprochement with Trump highlights the common concern to avoid a repetition of the scenario observed between the end of February — when Israel and the US started the war against the Islamic Republic — and the ceasefire at the beginning of April.
In that period, Iran and Tehran-backed militant groups in Iraq retaliated by firing thousands of drones and missiles across the Gulf, killing dozens of people and causing billions of dollars in damage to ports and energy infrastructure.
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“The Gulf Arab states saw their worst fears come true,” said Dina Esfandiary, an analyst at Bloomberg Economics. “They were caught in the middle of a war between the US and Iran and suffered much of the consequences. Now they face the prospect of a new confrontation if the ceasefire is not converted into a permanent agreement, with their image as stable havens in the region at risk.”
The UAE was frustrated when Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries refused to collectively respond with force against Iran to stop its attacks, as previously reported by Bloomberg News. People familiar with the matter said Abu Dhabi carried out limited attacks on Iran in coordination with the US and Israel, while Saudi Arabia took similar steps separately.
Iran and the US reached a truce on April 8 and have been exchanging messages through Pakistan about a possible peace agreement. Both say they are ready to resume hostilities and show little sign of willingness to make concessions.
Still, Trump’s Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, said on Friday that there had been “some progress” in the negotiations, and Iranian media made comments along the same lines. Pakistan Army commander Asim Munir was traveling to Iran on the same day, in a possible sign that the parties are closer to an understanding.
The UAE’s irritation with other Arab countries culminated in the surprise decision, at the end of April, to leave OPEC, the oil cartel led by Saudi Arabia. Since then, however, relations with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries have improved. The GCC is made up of six members: UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman.
“The UAE continues to closely coordinate and consult with Gulf Cooperation Council member states, alongside regional and international partners,” the UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement sent to Bloomberg on Thursday.
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Lots of firepower
On the same date, all GCC members except Oman sent a letter to a global maritime oversight body rejecting Iran’s attempts to permanently control traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran, in practice, closed the passage at the beginning of the war, strangling much of the Gulf countries’ oil and natural gas exports.
Iran and its allies still have plenty of firepower, although the Iranian military has been hit hard and several key leaders have been assassinated during the war. The threat to Gulf countries became clear most recently, on Sunday, with a drone attack on a UAE nuclear plant, which Abu Dhabi blamed on Iranian-backed Iraqi militias.
A day later, Trump said he had spoken to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed and Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad and said they convinced him not to attack Iran.
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Some Gulf leaders are unsure their appeals will be heeded and fear Israel will convince Trump to attack Iran again, one of the sources said.
The Jewish state, which has deepened defense and security ties with the UAE since the start of the war, sees the Islamic Republic as an existential threat. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has already indicated that more strikes are needed to further degrade Iran’s military capabilities.
There is a “50% chance of reaching a deal” with Iran, Anwar Gargash, senior adviser to the UAE president, said on Friday. “What worries me is that the Iranians have always negotiated excessively. I hope they don’t do that this time, because the region needs a political solution. A second round of military confrontation will only complicate things.”
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In a pool
Trump is in a bind. Although it has set itself the goal of destroying Iran’s ballistic missile program and even suggested regime change, the war has already cost the US tens of billions of dollars. With energy prices soaring due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the conflict is becoming increasingly unpopular among Americans.
The president oscillates between threatening major airstrikes on Iran and saying the countries are close to a peace agreement.
According to some of the sources, Saudi Arabia supports mediation via Pakistan and believes that limiting Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs will only be possible through negotiations.
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The kingdom, as well as the UAE, understands that, for now, the US should focus its efforts on convincing Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and maintain the naval blockade of Iranian ports to pressure Tehran in this regard, they said.
Qatar continues to support Pakistan-led mediation efforts, a Qatari diplomat said. Doha has consistently advocated reducing tensions in the name of regional stability, he said.
In its communication to Bloombergthe UAE Foreign Ministry reiterated that any agreement needs to address “the full range of threats” posed by Iran. This includes nuclear capabilities, ballistic missiles, drones and “affiliated proxies and terrorist groups,” it said.
A representative of the Saudi Arabian Ministry of Foreign Affairs referred to a statement by Foreign Minister Faisal Bin Farhan released on Wednesday. The prince said the kingdom “highly values” Trump’s decision to “give diplomacy a chance to reach an acceptable agreement that puts an end to the war.”
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