In recent years, it has become difficult to follow the news without coming across stories about record heat waves, prolonged droughts, historic floods or wildfires. In 2026, in particular, one term began to appear with increasing frequency: .
Meteorologists, rural producers, governments and investors follow the phenomenon, because it can influence the climate in several regions of the planet at the same time. Depending on the intensity, the effects reach , the price of food, energy consumption and .
Below, see how El Niño is formed, when it gains the classification of Super El Niño and what its main effects are on the climate and economy.
What is El Niño and why does it attract so much attention
O The Child occurs when the waters of the equatorial Pacific Ocean become warmer than normal for several months. Although it originates in the sea, its effects reach different parts of the planet, as the warming of waters interferes with atmospheric circulation and modifies the distribution of heat and humidity in different regions.
Therefore, an event that begins in the Pacific can influence climate change, increase the risk of droughts in areas of the Amazon, affect agriculture on different continents and change climatic conditions in distant countries, such as the United States, Australia and India.
How is El Niño formed?
El Niño originates in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean. Under normal conditions, trade winds move warmer water westward into the ocean, toward Asia and Oceania. This allows cooler waters to reach the surface near the coast of South America.
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In some periods, these winds lose strength. Without this constant push, warmer waters accumulate in the central and eastern Pacific.
This warming influences the atmosphere and changes the distribution of rainfall in different regions of the planet, favoring drier periods in some places and rainier periods in others.
Meteorological centers monitor this warming through specific regions of the Equatorial Pacific. The main one is called Niño 3.4. When the average temperature in that area remains above levels considered normal for several consecutive months, experts classify the event as El Niño..
How El Niño is born:
| 1st. Trade winds lose strength | Less warm water travels west to the Pacific. |
| 2nd. Heat accumulates in the ocean | Sea surface temperature rises. |
| 3rd. Pacific Ocean warms above average | Atmospheric circulation changes. |
| 4th. Atmosphere reacts to heat | Rains and droughts change positions. |
| 5th. Warming persists for months | The phenomenon is classified as El Niño. |
When does an El Niño transform into Super El Niño?
Not every El Niño comes with the same intensity. When warming of Pacific waters reaches levels well above the average observed during a common event, it is often called Super El Niño.
See some recent examples:
| Again | What happened |
| 1982-1983 | Floods hit countries in South America, while Australia and other regions faced severe droughts |
| 1997-1998 | Intense rains caused flooding in Peru and California; fires and droughts affected parts of Southeast Asia |
| 2015-2016 | The planet recorded record temperatures, while different regions faced droughts, floods and agricultural losses |
O start of El Niño does not follow a fixed date. In many cases, the first signs appear during the first half of the year, while the peak intensity usually occurs between the end of the year and the beginning of the following year.
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This behavior is not a rule. Some episodes develop more quickly, while others take longer to gain momentum.
What changes in Brazil during a Super El Niño?
Os Super El Niño effects do not appear in the same way across the country. While some regions tend to record above-average rainfall, others may experience periods of more intense drought and high temperatures.
South Region: more rain and greater risk of flooding
The South tends to concentrate some of the most visible impacts of the phenomenon. Increased rainfall increases the risk of storms, floods, landslides and river floods, especially during spring and summer.
In the field, excess humidity can delay planting, make harvesting difficult and increase the incidence of diseases in certain crops.
North and Northeast: drought, lower rivers and fires
With less rain, rivers in the Amazon may register levels below normal, making it difficult to transport people, goods and inputs in regions that depend on waterways.
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Vegetation is also more vulnerable to fire, increasing the risk of fires and problems related to air quality.
In part of the Northeast, especially in semi-arid areas, Super El Niño can reduce the volume of rainfall and worsen periods of drought. The reduced availability of water affects reservoirs, agricultural activities and supply in some locations.
Southeast and Midwest: more intense heat and effects on agricultural production
In times of Super El Niño, the Southeast tends to record above-average temperatures and more frequent heat waves. Excessive heat can affect crops such as coffee, for example, which depend on specific temperature and rainfall conditions throughout their production cycle.
In the Central-West, changes in the rainfall regime can influence the development of crops such as soybeans, corn and cotton, in addition to affecting the quality of pastures used for livestock farming.
How Super El Niño will affect the US (and other countries)
The changes caused by Super El Niño are not limited to countries bordering the Pacific.
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In the United States, impacts tend to vary by region. Southern states often experience wetter conditions during the winter, while parts of the north tend to experience above-average temperatures.
In South America, some areas receive more rain than normal, while others experience prolonged droughts that affect agriculture, energy generation and water supply.
Countries in Asia and Oceania are among those most exposed to the effects of the phenomenon. In regions such as Indonesia and Australia, intense El Niño episodes often increase the risk of droughts, heat waves and forest fires.
India is also following the phenomenon closely because changes in the monsoon regime can affect agricultural production and food supplies for hundreds of millions of people.
Why is agribusiness following Super El Niño so closely?
As the phenomenon changes the rainfall and temperature regime in different regions of the country, it can disrupt the agricultural calendar, reduce productivity and increase production costs.
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Therefore, experts and research centers usually analyze the effects of the phenomenon according to the cultures and production systems most affected.
| Activity affected | Impacts | How it happens |
|---|---|---|
| Soy and corn | Delays in planting and risks for the off-season | – Irregular rains can delay soybean planting and require replanting – As soybeans and off-season corn are usually grown in sequence, delays in the first crop reduce the ideal window for the second |
| Coffee, wheat and rice | Depend on region and culture | – Excessive heat is bad for flowering and the formation of coffee beans – O – Rice may also suffer losses with intense rains in the south of the country |
| Livestock | Pastures lose quality | – High temperatures and drier periods can reduce pasture availability – Producers spend more on feed and food supplements |
Changes in temperature and humidity can also favor the proliferation of pests and diseases in crops. In some conditions, insects and fungi find a more favorable environment to multiply, increasing monitoring and control expenses.
Consequently, the effects also reach the consumer. When the weather reduces production or increases costs in the field, the supply of some products decreases. With less supply and more expenses throughout the production chain, food and agricultural commodities tend to become more expensive, putting pressure on inflation.
El Niño and La Niña: what’s the difference?
El Niño and La Niña are part of the same climate system, known as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), but they have opposite characteristics.
El Niño occurs when surface waters in the Equatorial Pacific become warmer than the historical average. La Niña appears when these same waters register temperatures below normal.
This difference alters atmospheric circulation and produces different effects in different parts of the planet.
In general, regions that tend to receive more rain during El Niño episodes may experience drier conditions during La Niña events. The reverse also usually occurs.
In Brazil, La Niña often favors above-average rainfall in parts of the North and Northeast, while the South may experience periods of drought more frequently.
El Niño x La Niña: see the main differences
| Aspect | The Child | The Girl |
|---|---|---|
| Pacific Temperature | Above average | Below average |
| Origin | Light trade winds; accumulation of warmer waters | Strong trade winds; greater presence of cold waters |
| Southern Brazil (trend) | More rain | Less rain |
| North Amazon (trend) | Less rain | More rain |
| Global average temperature | Generally higher | Generally lower |
