The FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) of the Fed (Federal Reserve, the North American monetary authority) announced this Wednesday (June 17, 2026) the decision to maintain the US base interest rate in the range of 3.50% to 3.75%. The measure was approved by unanimous vote.
In an official statement, he stated that economic activity continues to expand at a “solid rhythm”supported by growth in productivity and investment. Still, the committee warned of a scenario of “high uncertainty”associated in part with the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which has affected global energy and trade prospects. Here is it (PDF – 159 kB, in English).
The statement also reinforces that current operational guidelines — including maintaining the rate within the defined range — must be implemented “until instructed otherwise”indicating continuity without imminent changes.
In addition to the reference rate, the Board of Governors kept the other administered rates unchanged:
- the interest rate on reserve balances was maintained at 3.65%, effective June 18;
- the primary credit rate remained at 3.75%.
Despite maintaining interest rates, the US central bank reiterated that inflation remains above the 2% target. The statement highlights that supply shocks, especially in the energy sector, continue to put pressure on prices in specific segments of the economy.
“The committee reaffirmed its commitment to price stability and maximum employment”says the text.
In the job market, the scenario remains stable. The Fed noted that job creation has accompanied the growth of the workforce, with little variation in the unemployment rate, suggesting a still resilient market.
The Fed also reiterated its continued policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system, reinvesting maturing securities on its balance sheet to support liquidity.
“Forward guidance” and change in communication
The so-called forward guidance — explicit signaling about the next steps of monetary policy — does not appear in the statement. In practice, this is the future guidance that central banks usually offer to the market to indicate the likely direction of interest rates or the timing of possible adjustments. The absence of this type of indication reduces the immediate predictability of monetary policy and tends to increase investors’ dependence on future economic data, such as inflation and employment, to price expectations.
The change in approach takes place at the 1st meeting under the presidency of Kevin Warsh, appointed by US President Donald Trump (Republican Party), to head the Fed and the FOMC. Warsh is critical of more explicit forward guidance models and advocates more restricted communication, with less verbal commitment about future interest rate trajectories. According to him, detailed signals can limit the monetary authority’s flexibility and cause distortions in market expectations.
His position therefore marks an inflection in the central bank’s communication strategy in this debut at the head of the Committee.
Super 4th
The “Super 4th” occurs when the Fed, in the United States, and the Central Bank of Brazil release their monetary policy decisions on the same day. This June 17, both central banks announce their interest rates, which tends to provoke a strong reaction in global financial markets.
The event is considered relevant because the decisions directly influence the cost of credit, the flow of international capital and expectations about inflation and economic activity. Changes or maintenance in rates can impact stock markets, currencies and asset prices in several countries, including emerging economies such as Brazil.
In this context, the Brazilian monetary authority’s decision gains more weight, as it needs to take this global movement into account to define the Selic rate. If the interest rate differential between Brazil and the USA decreases, the country may lose attractiveness to foreign investors; if it increases, it tends to attract more capital, influencing the exchange rate, inflation and credit conditions.
