Russian satellites appear to be preparing for an attack

There is a new front in the war in Ukraine: the silent dispute for control and security of orbits. Experts fear that Moscow may be preparing an attempt at interference, sabotage or surveillance in orbit.

Six Russian military satellites launched in late April appear to be approach a commercial satellite from the Finnish constellation ICEYE, which has been providing radar images to Ukraine since the beginning of the war.

According to , the maneuver created fears among space security experts that Moscow may be preparing an attempt to interference, sabotage or surveillance in orbit.

The maneuvers were detected by Greg Gillingersenior vice president of space intelligence company Integrity ISR and former head of intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance at the United States Air Force’s Combined Space Operations Center.

The expert began following the movements of Russian satellites after consideringunusual air the way they were placed in orbit by a Soyuz rocket.

According to Gillinger, Russia initially placed the first satellite, from the Kosmos 2609 to 2614 series, at about 550 kilometers altitudebefore using the Volga space tug to send the rest to another orbital plane. Each device will weigh around 600 kilos, but Little else is known about its function.

What alarmed analysts was the effort required to adjust the orbital planes. Changing the inclination of an orbit After launch, it consumes a lot of fuel, shortening the useful life of a satellite and requiring larger tanks, which reduce the available payload.

“My assumption is that You don’t do this by accident“, said Gillinger. “A huge amount of energy to change the orbital inclination. It’s not usual to see reconnaissance, communications or other satellites do something like this.”

Tracking data made available by the US Armed Forces indicates that the initial orbital plane of the Kosmos satellites it was already close of two ICEYE satellites. In mid-May, several of the Russian devices began firing thrusters to further align with the Finnish satellites.

The most worrying approach occurred on May 29, when, according to Gillinger, Kosmos 2614 passed just 13 kilometers from ICEYE X36.

COMSPOC, a company specializing in space situational awareness software, confirmed having observed the approachalthough I estimate that the shortest distance was 43 kilometers.

For now, Gillinger points out that Russian satellites have not done “nothing dangerous or alarming.” Still, he considers that the behavior may indicate an intention to affect the operation of ICEYE satellites.

“It’s behavior we’ve never seen before“, he said. “It could be something as simple as an inspection mission. We don’t know. They may even want to interfere with the ICEYE satellite kinetically or non-kinetically”.

Kinetic interference would imply the use of physical forcesuch as a deliberate collision or robotic arms capable of damaging a satellite. Non-kinetic interference could involve blocking signals or the use of lasers to blind sensors.

Russian interest in ICEYE does not surprise experts. The Finnish constellation is the largest in the world equipped with synthetic aperture radarscapable of observing the Earth’s surface through clouds and at night.

Since the beginning of the Russian invasion, the ICEYE has supported the Ukrainian defense effort. Kiev bought priority access to images with money raised through a crowdfunding campaign. The company declined to comment on the case.

Russia had previously threatened Western commercial operators that help Ukraine.

In October 2022, Konstantin Vorontsovthe Russian Foreign Ministry’s head of non-proliferation and arms control, told the United Nations that such “quasi-civilian” infrastructure could become a legitimate target of retaliation, describing the military use of commercial satellites as a trend “extremely dangerous”.

Victoria Samsonfrom the Secure World Foundation, states that Russian operations approaching Western satellites are not new, recalling the cases of satellites Luch e Luch 2 alongside US intelligence satellites.

The difference, he says, is that it will be the first time that Russian satellites will align with a commercial device in low Earth orbit.

In May, two Russian satellites approach less than three meters from each otherin orbit, and the shallow passage “was not a coincidence”, say analysts. A third satellite performed several precision maneuvers to maintain close formation with the other two.

According to a report by the Secure World Foundation published in June 2025, despite the decline of the Russian civil space programMoscow’s military space capabilities remain on par with China’s and, in many respects, surpass those of the United States and Europe.

The maneuvers of the Luch satellites, since 2014, had already raised suspicions of Western state and eavesdropping.