The support of the president of , , for a candidate for president of Brazil in this year’s election would not make a difference to 65% of voters, according to information released this Saturday (20).
For 17%, the American’s support would increase their desire to vote for the candidate. On the opposite side, 15% say that the desire to vote for the politician would decrease if he were supported by Trump. They don’t know 3%.
The institute interviewed 2,004 people aged 16 or over between June 17 and 18, in 139 municipalities. The margin of error is plus or minus 2 percentage points. The research is registered with the (Superior Electoral Court) under number BR-09956/2026.
Trump has supported the Bolsonaro family, represented in the presidential race by Senator Flávio (-RJ). At the same time, he publicly criticizes the government of the president (PT), who is seeking re-election, despite occasional nods to the PT member.
Trump stated in an interview with the website Axios that Lula is “very volatile” and that he doesn’t care about the Brazilian.
Two days earlier, the American discussed the political situation in Brazil and reinforced its alignment with Bolsonarism. Trump cited in a regretful tone the conviction of the former federal deputy, although confusing him with Flávio, and implied that the elections in Brazil are not reliable.
In the statement in favor of the clan, given to journalists, Trump made reference to Eduardo’s conviction, in the (Supreme Federal Court), for coercion during the process. “Brazil has become a slightly complicated country, right? Politically. It has become a bit dangerous from a political point of view,” he said.
For the United States, the conviction is an example of political persecution, an argument already used in other episodes involving the family, such as the trial that led to the arrest of the patriarch (PL) for leading a coup d’état.
Lula, on the other hand, raised his tone against Trump, after moments in which he tried to get closer, such as the episode in which the two talked about a , in 2025.
During an event at the G7 this Wednesday (17) and said he did not support the behavior of the American government. The PT member made it clear that the United States.
Although interference is a confessed fear of a wing of the government, there is not much evidence that Trump’s support can make a significant difference in the performance of a presidential candidate in the country, as Datafolha showed.
The politician himself is a polarized figure in Brazil. According to one, 54.8% of the population have a negative image of him, compared to 41.7% who have a positive image.
In other countries, Trump’s support was sometimes on the side of winning politicians, sometimes not. A positive example for the American is that of the Argentinean Milei, an ally he achieved in 2025, representing right-wing populism in the southern hemisphere.
At the time, Trump stated that Milei had “a lot of help” from Washington for her success. The same did not happen in Hungary, where, despite the support of the US president, he left the government after 16 years in power.
Datafolha points out that, although Trump’s support may mobilize voters already engaged in polarized areas, it is unlikely to have more influence than domestic factors, such as the economy.
The impact of Trump’s support is greater in groups already permeated by polarization. Among the segments analyzed by Datafolha, the percentage of those who say that Trump’s support would increase the chance of voting for a candidate is higher among those who point to the PL as their preferred party (42%) or whose intention to vote is for (32%).
Those who most think that support would have the opposite effect are among groups such as those who intend to vote for Lula (23%) or who say they are left or center-left (24%).
