The world is preparing for extreme weather fluctuations. The climate phenomenon El Niño may be the strongest in the history of measurements in 2026 and 2027. Combined with record global warming and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East experts warn of catastrophic droughts, floods and a global food crisis, reports the Polish website.
El Niño, the warmer phase of the ENSO climate cycle in the tropical Pacific Ocean, is gaining strength again, and current forecasts are causing serious concern. Models suggest that the ocean surface temperature anomaly could exceed 3°C. If this scenario were to come true, we would face the so-called “Super El Niño”, the strongest since records began.
The whole world will feel the impact of this phenomenon, although in different forms. The south of the USA or China is usually hit by intense rainfall – for example, in the years 1997 and 1998, floods in China claimed thousands of lives. On the contrary, Australia, the Amazon and sub-Saharan Africa are threatened by devastating droughts and heat waves. In Europe, the consequences are more difficult to predict, but they usually bring significant anomalies.
Climate extremes come at the worst possible time. Drought directly threatens agriculture, but the problem is not only the weather. The lack of essential fertilizers, caused by the conflict between the US, Israel and Iran, worsens the situation dramatically.
Attacks on industrial facilities and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz caused a substantial part of urea (a key nitrogen fertilizer) and the natural gas needed for its production to disappear from the global market. These factors can trigger devastating famine in the most vulnerable areas, such as sub-Saharan Africa. However, Europe will also feel the consequences – for example, the extreme increase in prices and the unavailability of coffee and cocoa.
The historical analogies are terrifying. A strong El Niño in the late 1800s contributed to famines that killed over 50 million people, which was 3-4% of the world’s population at the time. Today, however, we are facing an unprecedented situation where a natural climate phenomenon is combined with extreme global warming due to human activity.
