The house arrest of former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL) is expected to be maintained in the coming weeks. This is the assessment of interlocutors heard by the column, who understand that the current scenario requires less intervention from third parties and that the scenario is calmer than the first time it was subjected to the measure.
Jovem Pan found that, in the assessment of the Federal Police, Bolsonaro has complied with the determinations imposed by the Court. Members of the corporation point out that, this time, there were no episodes of great repercussion like those recorded in the first house arrest, when demonstrations in front of the former president’s residence gained notoriety, for example.
The episode involving during a traffic stop is also treated differently behind the scenes by people linked to the investigation. The understanding is that Bolsonaro should have communicated the existence of the weapons, but the situation was not equated with episodes considered more serious, such as the attempt to remove the electronic ankle bracelet recorded during the first home visit.
Furthermore, around the Federal Supreme Court (STF), the assessment is that a Any revocation of house arrest at this time could generate additional strain on the Court. Aides claim that Bolsonaro has been complying with the rules imposed and that the case occurs in a period of pre-election campaign, which could, in addition to causing turbulence in the 2026 election, generate ammunition for his son, the pre-candidate for Palácio do Planalto Flávio Bolsonaro (PL).
Another factor cited is the existence of medical reports that supported the granting of the measure. The reading is that the documents continue to support the former president’s stay at home. On the night of this Tuesday (23), including, claiming that his health conditions “have permanent characteristics” and that the clinical condition “remains requiring specialized monitoring and continuous medical evaluation”.
Unlike what happened previously, allies have also acted less directly in the case. Former First Lady Michelle Bolsonaro (PL), who participated in the articulations of the first house arrest, has not requested audiences with Minister Alexandre de Moraes to date. The assessment is that the matter is more pacified and can be handled by the former president’s defense. The governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans) was also not directly involved in discussions related to the case in this new phase of house arrest.
Since November 2025, Bolsonaro has been serving a sentence of 27 years and 3 months in prison for being considered the leader of a criminal organization that tried to carry out a coup d’état in 2022 to keep him in power even after his defeat in the 2022 elections. The domicile was granted by Moraes in March and for a period of 90 days, which ends this Thursday (25).
