In recent months, the Bolsonarist right has experienced a season of turmoil. Bolsonaro’s trial ignited a spark of dissatisfaction that turned into the camp itself.
(PL-SP) opened crossfire against (Republicans), accusing the governor of betraying the movement by being the main name floated as a presidential candidate in the right-wing camp. (PL-MG), in turn, began to be criticized for accumulating too much prominence.
In this chaos — between the fatigue of the amnesty speech and the lack of a new country project — it once again gained traction on the networks, occupying the space of a right that is trying to rebuild itself while still fighting with itself.
This occurs amid the founding of the Mission Party, an institutional branch of the MBL and a project to transform the movement into a formal party force. The party was born at a time when Bolsonarism, eroded in recent weeks, fails to meet the expectations of a public that identifies with liberal, anti-corruption and public security agendas.
In recent months, the group has expanded its presence in the national debate with proposals such as the Anti-Oruam Law, the defense of “favelization” and the classification of factions as terrorist organizations. The turn towards public security and urban morality marks a new phase of the MBL — less economistic, more combative and aimed at competing with Bolsonarism for the imagination of the young right.
In the monitoring of more than 100,000 public groups carried out by Palver, the MBL appears to be gaining ground precisely while Bolsonarist youth politicians are losing traction. This advance coincides with the position of (-SP), which in recent weeks stood out — seen as an attempt by Congress to shield itself from investigations — and, subsequently, by leading the articulation for the withdrawal of MP 1,303, which increased tax rates on financial investments such as cryptocurrencies, LCIs and LCAs.
Between January and August 2025, the MBL fluctuated, with an average of 25% participation in the debate compared to Bolsonarist youth politicians. Over the next two months, however, the movement began to grow by around 10% per week, until it reached 50% of attention among young right-wing politicians. At the end of the period, mentions of Nikolas represented 37% of the total, while Kim concentrated 43%, consolidating a dispute for protagonism within the digital right.
On Instagram, Nikolas showed unusual growth in January 2025, driven by his high engagement during the “Pix crisis”. But, with the exception of the councilor of Lucas Pavanato (PL), the other Bolsonaro youth leaders did not register significant progress after the tariff.
In contrast, all MBL leaders started to grow from July onwards, following the repositioning of the movement on the networks. The highlight is São Paulo state deputy Guto Zacarias (União Brasil), who became one of the most followed politicians in the group.
The network in which MBL stands out most is , where it consistently maintains around 80% of attention among right-wing leaders. Unlike the more ephemeral environment of Instagram and X (formerly Twitter), YouTube allows long videos and more elaborate narratives, favoring the construction of agendas and the political framing of complex themes.
It is in this format that the movement has coordinated its recent strategy, articulating debates on the Anti-Oruam bill, the “enemy’s criminal law”, fiscal adjustment and the end of the CLT.
With Renan Santos presenting himself as a pre-candidate for President for the Mission Party, he is already appearing timidly in polls of voting intentions, especially among the younger public. The movement is betting that it can occupy the space left by a fragmented Bolsonarism and compete against a strengthened left. In 2026, this right-wing should test whether the combination of influence on the networks and strategic agendas will be sufficient to convert online engagement into real electoral strength
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