In 1859, a super solar storm hit Earth. The event, which would later be named the Carrington Event, was caused by a natural cycle of the sun and sent powerful electrical currents to our planet. The storm destroyed telegraph systems, caused accidents and even produced auroras in countries like Cuba. Hundreds of years later, the phenomenon could return to terrorize the Earth – and at any time.
At least that’s what scientists at the European Space Agency say () in Germany. In a recent experiment, carried out at the European Space Operations Center (ESOC), in Darmstadt, engineers and other experts showed the catastrophic effect that an event of the same size as Carrington would cause on today’s planet Earth, full of satellites, electrical connections and the internet.
“If such a storm were to occur, satellite drag could increase by 400% with local spikes in atmospheric density. This not only affects collision risks, but also shortens the lifespan of satellites due to increased fuel consumption to compensate for orbital decay,” says Jorge Amaya, Space Weather Modeling Coordinator at ESA.
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The experiment
ESA’s experiment was prompted by the launch of the Sentinel-1D observation satellite. To protect themselves from any unforeseen events in space, the agency’s team decided to simulate a super solar storm, inspired by the Carrington Event, but taking into account today’s technology.
The experiment had the following steps:
- The simulation satellite was launched and separated successfully. Everything seemed normal in mission control, waiting for the first signal.
- Normality, however, was short-lived: minutes later, a transmission full of interference made it clear that something was very wrong.
- The explanation was the worst possible: a colossal X45-class solar flare had hit the newly launched satellite and everyone else in orbit. The wave of energy, traveling at the speed of light, took just eight minutes to travel from the Sun to the Earth.
The experiment then presented two more stages. In the third, the worst of them, an immense coronal mass ejection hit the Earth at 2,000 km/s, generating a catastrophic geomagnetic storm. On Earth, auroras appeared at low latitudes and electrical grids collapsed. In space, atmospheric drag has increased, deflecting satellites from their orbits and increasing the risk of collisions.
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New solar superstorm on its way to Earth
A solar flare, such as the Carrington Event of 1859, is a colossal explosion of energy that erupts on the surface of our Sun. The phenomenon has its fundamental origin in the rupture and subsequent reconnection of intense solar magnetic fields.
When these magnetic field lines abruptly reconnect, an immense amount of accumulated energy is released all at once. This catastrophic release can heat the plasma to millions of degrees and release radiation, preventing communication on Earth.
At the time of the Carrington Event, the largest means of communication was the telegraph. If the phenomenon, caused by solar flares and coronal mass ejections, were repeated today, the damage would tend to be much greater, being capable of turning off GPS and satellites, and even turning off appliances or electricity and internet networks.
Hundreds of years later, ESA scientists categorically state that a new super solar storm is not only possible, but also very likely.
“This exercise was an opportunity to expand a simulation training campaign and involve many other stakeholders across ESOC, covering all types of missions and operational parts. Conducting it in a controlled environment gave us valuable insights into how we could better plan, approach and react when such an event occurs. The key takeaway is that it is not a question of ‘if’ it will happen, but ‘when'”, says Gustavo Baldo Carvalho, Chief Operations Officer. Sentinel-1D simulation.
Scientists warn that the Sun goes through cycles of around 11 years and the current one, called Cycle 25, is at its peak. Recently, NASA, the North American space agency, reported that the number of solar flares have occurred in greater quantities than expected in recent months.
Optimism in the experiment
The ESA study states that the best way to protect against a solar superstorm is preventative information. Therefore, studies such as those carried out in Darmstadt become important and should serve as a guide for government decision-making.
The good news is that the experiment participants did well in the simulated extreme environments, generating optimism among the study’s researchers.
“The scale and variety of impacts pushed us and our systems to the limit, but the team mastered the challenge and it taught us that if we can manage this, we can manage any real-life contingency,” said Thomas Ormston, Deputy Director of Spacecraft Operations for Sentinel-1D.
As there is little care, ESA itself is developing a Distributed Space Weather Sensor System (D3S). This network of satellites will monitor space weather parameters around Earth, providing detailed solar data. The initiative aims to protect citizens and critical infrastructure on our planet.
