The incident carried out on October 28, which left 121 dead, being the deadliest in the history of Brazil, placed public security at the center of public debate.
In public and Telegram groups, the action began to represent a war of narratives, with, on the one hand, the defense of authority and the use of force; on the other, the denunciation of the inability to guarantee security without lethality.
According to monitoring by , which analyzed more than 100,000 public message groups in real time from October 28th to November 2nd, the operation peaked on October 29th, with more than 2,000 mentions for every 100,000 messages exchanged.
More than 70% were made up of videos and images, a fact that reinforces the role of this type of content in shaping opinion.
The morning after the operation, the data showed that, when considering all users, 45% of the messages were in favor and 38% were against. When limited to users in the state of Rio de Janeiro, 43% were in favor and 39% against.
In mentions of the governor (PL), Palver identified a balance between those in favor and those against. Positive publications describe him as an authority who acts in the face of crime with efficiency, courage and autonomy.
Criticism emphasizes lethality, abuse and lack of control, using terms such as “massacre”, “extermination” and “police violence”. This current links the governor to a policy of “war spectacle”, incapable of altering the structural dynamics of crime.
In a context of misinformation and a crisis of confidence, the operation in Rio reignites the debate about authority, legitimacy and social control. The topic is precisely the weak point of the (PT) and could serve to hold back what has been observed in recent months.
The event also helped Castro reach its highest level since 2022.
The day after the operation, President Lula sanctioned what, according to the government’s post on the official Instagram account, “toughens and strengthens the fight against criminal factions in Brazil”.
Furthermore, efforts increased around the approval of the , whose objective is the integration between state police and standardization in the fight against organized crime.
The operation in Rio occurs at a bad time for the federal government, since on Friday (24) public security was already at the center of discussions after Lula stated that “drug traffickers are victims of drug users”.
Soon after, the president made a post on his X account, taking a firm stance against drug traffickers and organized crime. The damage, however, had already been done and mentions of drug trafficking, traffickers and factions reached an all-time high in Palver’s monitoring.
Therefore, maintaining the discussion on public security could be one of the opposition’s greatest weapons, already targeting next year’s electoral debate.
The union of right-wing governors around the call reinforces the politicization of the debate and also aims to convey the image of leadership on the issue, consolidating the group in opposition to the federal government.
The presence of presidential candidates such as (governor of SP, from the Republicans), (governor of Goiás, from União Brasil) and (governor of Minas Gerais, from Novo) in the “Consórcio da Paz” can anticipate internal disputes for protagonism in the right-wing camp and for the inheritance of the political capital of the former president (PL).
The operation in Rio, therefore, repositions the political situation in the national context and should be central to the 2026 electoral debate.
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