Consultant assesses that well-rated senators in Congress may have difficulty convincing voters about their management capacity in the states
A survey carried out by the column shows that 16 senators have already signaled that they will leave Congress to run for state governments in the 2026 elections. The movement adds to the renewal of 54 of the 81 seats in the Senate, indicating a possible reconfiguration of the national political scenario.
Pre-candidate senators by region
Norte
- Alan Rick — Acre (AC)
- Omar Aziz — Amazonas (AM)
- Marcos Rogério — Rondônia (RO) (end of term)
- Professor Dorinha — Tocantins (TO)
- Eduardo Gomes — Tocantins (TO) (end of term)
North East
- Renan Filho — Alagoas (AL)
- Eduardo Girão — Ceará (CE) (end of term)
- Efraim Filho — Paraíba (PB)
- Ciro Nogueira — Piauí (PI) (end of term)
Midwest
- Cleitinho — Minas Gerais (MG)
- Rodrigo Pacheco — Minas Gerais (MG)
- Wilder Morais — Goiás (GO)
- Wellington Fagundes — Mato Grosso (MT)
- Jayme Campos — Mato Grosso (MT) (end of term)
- Izalci Lucas — Federal District (DF) (end of term)
On the
- Sergio Moro — Paraná (PR)
Political consultant Humberto Frederico warns that being well evaluated in the Senate does not guarantee success in a dispute for the state Executive. According to him, the ideology factor can influence voter perception, but it is not enough to secure votes:
“The ideology factor, in some states, will be important. Many of these senators are trying to show voters, for example, the senator who is right-wing, he is trying to show voters that he can be a good governor precisely because he is right-wing. But that alone will not be enough. Because at the end, whoever is living the State, who is experiencing the problems of his State, he wants to know the digestion, he wants to know how far this senator, despite him approving this senator’s mandate in the National Congress, he still has doubts whether this same senator will be able to take care of health, take care of education and especially public safety.”
Humberto Frederico also highlights that the voter evaluates the candidate’s management capacity:
“We will see well-rated senators having difficulty in their states running for state government if they are unable to transfer this management capacity to voters. It is important to observe the level of voter contentment and discontent. The election for the Senate and also for the state government will show how satisfied voters are with those who were elected four years ago.”
The dispute for state government will be strongly influenced by the local realities of each region.
In the North, states like Amazonas and Acre face structural problems, including public health and safety, which can weigh on voter evaluations. Rondônia and Tocantins require senators to demonstrate experience in local management, in addition to their political history in Congress.
Humberto Frederico – Reproduction/Jovem Pan
In the Northeast, the complexity is even greater. States like Piauí and Ceará present economic and social challenges that place candidates under the direct scrutiny of voters. The ability to transfer prestige in the Senate to concrete results in state management will be decisive.
In the Midwest, the dispute is marked by diversity. Minas Gerais has strong internal competitiveness, while Goiás and Mato Grosso demand experience in agricultural management and infrastructure. In the Federal District, attention will be focused on the relationship with the Union and the impact of federal policies.
In the South, Paraná concentrates national attention, with Sergio Moro as the highlight. The dispute tends to be influenced by public security and the local economy, central themes for the electorate.
The departure of senators to run for state governments, combined with the election of 54 seats, should lead to a reconfiguration of the Senate and directly impact party alliances and national politics from 2027 onwards.
*This text does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Jovem Pan.
