The United States Supreme Court decision that placed the possibility of the North American government having to disburse up to US$175 billion in possible reimbursements at the center of the debate.
The estimate is from the Penn-Wharton Budget Model, a fiscal research group at the University of Pennsylvania, prepared at the request of Reuters. The calculation considers the revenue obtained from tariffs applied under different legal instruments, including the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977, used by Trump to justify the unilateral imposition of taxes on imports.
By 6 votes to 3, the Supreme Court upheld the lower court’s understanding that the use of IEEPA to create large-scale tariffs exceeded the limits of presidential authority. The action was filed by companies affected by the charges and by 12 American states.
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With the decision, importers who collected tariffs last year can seek reimbursement from the US Customs and Border Protection agency. According to senior economist Lysle Boller, from Penn-Wharton, the model uses rates by product and country to estimate the potential volume of returns if the tariffs are definitively invalidated.
The projected amount exceeds the combined budgets of the Department of Transportation ($127.6 billion) and the Department of Justice ($44.9 billion) in fiscal year 2025. Over the past decade, Trump has repeatedly highlighted tariffs as a relevant source of revenue, with the Congressional Budget Office projecting about $300 billion annually.
Despite this, economic results fell short of expectations. Official data indicates that the trade deficit fell just 0.2% in 2025, to US$901.5 billion. In terms of consumer goods, the negative balance reached US$ 1.24 trillion, a record for the series.
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The industrial market also did not show a consistent recovery. Between January 2025 and January 2026, there was a reduction of 83 thousand jobs in factories. At the same time, inflation remained above the 2% target and the cost of living put pressure on family budgets. In November, Trump even announced his intention to pay US$2,000 to each American with resources from tariffs, a proposal that did not advance in Congress.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has already signaled that the government can appeal and that there are mechanisms to absorb possible refunds. Still, the Supreme Court’s decision represents a significant setback for the White House’s tariff strategy and increases fiscal uncertainty at a time of slowdown in the American economy.
