He US Army is already on its largest deployment since the 2003 Iraq Warprepared, according to President Donald Trump himself, for a attack on Iran that could be imminent. But the order has not arrived yet. The US president has said he is considering a “limited attack” to pressure Iran and has set an ultimatum of “10 to 15 days” for Tehran to accept a deal on the nuclear program and his arsenal of ballistic missilesand the show of force becomes an ultimatum.
The question of whether Iran will be the new Venezuela is literally up in the air. The same aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford —now heading to the Middle East— participated in the operation of the January 3 for the capture of Nicolas Maduro. The displaced media and military movements remember that anteroom when they were stationed in the Caribbean. The same public pressure, the same concentration of air and maritime means, waiting to see if there is military and political order for a quick coup.
Meanwhile, the US is costing its greatest ally in the region, Israel. The US Secretary of State, Marco Rubioplans to travel on February 28 to meet the prime minister Benjamin Netanyahuat a time when Washington is weighing options to appear as protector of its ally most exposed to Iranian pressure (Israel) and advance its own national interests. The diplomatic calendar coexists with a region on alert.
Iran warns that it will respond
Iran has taken its warning to UN Security Council: ensures that it does not search “tension or war“, but that it will respond in a “decisive and proportional” way to any aggression. It is a message designed to deter, although it also highlights the central risk: a limited attack can activate a chain of retaliation that is difficult to contain.
On the ground, Iran seeks to show its ability to respond. has announced naval maneuvers with Russia in it Arabian Sea and the northern Indian Ocean, and has activated air safety warnings due to rocket launches. During live-fire exercises, in addition, temporary restrictions have been imposed in areas of the Strait of Hormuza critical route for global energy traffic.
satellite images Disseminated by international agencies point to reinforcements in sensitive facilities and the protection of infrastructure linked to the nuclear program. Analysts describe an effort to harden positions and complicate an eventual offensive. The problem is that, in scenarios like this, any incident—a damaged ship, a hit energy infrastructure, a miscalculation—can rewrite the script.
The Diego García base
Military pressure coexists with friction between allies. The basis of Diego Garciain the Chagos Archipelago, returns to the center of the debate because it can serve as a logistics and support platform in long-range operations. But its use does not depend only on the US: it is a low enclave British sovereignty leased to the United Statesand therefore, United Kingdom must authorize their use in offensive actions.
The British Prime Minister, Keir Starmerhas conveyed to Trump that will not allow the use of British facilitiesincluding this military base, to attack Iran If that violates international law. Trump has responded by raising the tone against the British agreement to transfer sovereignty of the archipelago to Mauritius and publicly demanding that it not be ““hand over” the island. The dispute matters because it conditions permits and times; also because it reveals that, even between partners, the leap from deterrence to action opens cracks.
In the air
While Trump decides, the Pentagon expands its presence around Iran. More combat and surveillance aircraft, drones and support devices have arrived, along with defensive reinforcements to protect bases and troops against possible retaliation. In the sea, the Abraham Lincoln already operates in the area and the arrival of the Gerald R. Fordwhich increases the ability to operate from the sea quickly and continuously.
The political signal is clear: The United States wants to be in a position to act if the ultimatum runs out. And, at the same time, wants Iran to see it. With the Venezuelan precedent still recent and with part of the same media returning to the scene, the deployment fuels doubt about whether Washington is preparing a repeatable script.
If the next few days do not bring an agreement, the device is already in place so that a decision in the Oval Office is translated, almost without transition, into facts on the ground. And that is the lever that maintains the tension: when everything seems ready, any signal can become the trigger.
Subscribe to continue reading
