But another thing is important. Iran has admitted – and the International Atomic Energy Agency has also confirmed this – that it has around 300 kilograms of enriched uranium at its disposal. Although it is not uranium enriched to the extent necessary for the production of a weapon, it is enriched to about 60-70 percent (according to experts, the border beyond which nuclear weapons are not a long way away, editor’s note). The problem is that the CIA has been unable to track him down and no one knows exactly where this material is located.
The Iranians can re-enrich this material in secret if they build new centrifuges somewhere underground. Iran is a huge and mostly mountainous country – from one end of it to the other it is roughly the same distance as from Iran to Slovakia. Finding an underground centrifuge system there is extremely difficult. Although known factories are destroyed, they can still build new ones in other places. That is essential.
So is there a threat of a nuclear attack from Iran in the near future?
No, definitely not. Developing a nuclear bomb is not easy. Although the Americans often say that Iran is six or ten months away from producing a weapon, their program is now significantly slowed. They have nowhere to enrich uranium, and Israel is also purposefully eliminating their nuclear scientists.
However, if the attacks were to stop, it is true that within a few years Iran could acquire the bomb. The Americans and Israelis are therefore also focusing on how Iran could distribute it – that is, on the Iranian air force and missile program. The Air Force is largely destroyed, and its missile program is dependent on purchases from North Korea and China, which do not yet appear willing to supply it with the technology it needs. Ultimately, Israel’s goal is to bring a regime to power in Iran that will not even attempt a nuclear weapon.
Speaking of the size of Iran – Donald Trump has not ruled out the deployment of ground troops either. In your opinion, is the US military capable of carrying out a full-scale ground invasion of Iran today in terms of personnel and logistics?
As for special forces, I am convinced that Israeli and American forces are already operating on the territory of Iran, at least as air guides. They search for targets, correct aerial fire and evaluate strikes.
But a full-blown invasion? The US definitely doesn’t have the will to do it, and I don’t think it has the means either. Iran is a huge country with tens of millions of inhabitants. An attack on Iran would be comparable to an attack on Ukraine for Russia. Already in the 1980s, during the war with Iraq, Iran showed that it can hold its own against a more technologically advanced opponent. Although they suffered huge losses and operated with almost World War II deployments, the immense patriotism of the Iranian people saved them and they maintained their sovereignty. Americans know this well. The losses would be huge and there are no political reasons for this.
Will the Kurds get involved or will their experience with the US deter them?
So, if it were not a full-scale invasion, is there a real effort to at least secure and control Iran’s nuclear facilities on the ground?
I think that will definitely happen. This would be a similar scenario to what we see in Syria or Iraq, where the Western community and US troops control certain strategic points, for example, Syrian oil facilities in the north. Something like that could happen at the moment when the regime would actually end, roughly the way the regime in Venezuela ended. On the other hand, compared to Iran, Venezuela is really a much smaller country, and the long-term occupation of part of its territory by the Americans does not seem entirely likely. Rather, the Americans would occupy specific locations with oil infrastructure or nuclear research centers.
On the other hand, in the last few hours there have been reports that the CIA wants to start working again with the Kurdish minority, which operates in relatively large parts of Iran, Iraq and Turkey, and that they want to arm it as they armed the Afghan Mujahideen in the 1980s. This could cause some problems for the government in Tehran. But so far I can’t imagine the Americans occupying large parts of Iran.
But it is possible that the Iranian regime is more fragile than we currently think. Even socialism in Eastern Europe once looked very solid, but then it suddenly crumbled in a few days. It doesn’t look like that yet, but I wouldn’t rule out that it will turn out the same in Iran. If something like that happens, it’s possible that there will be a situation like in Venezuela, and then I think the Americans could control a part of Iran, at least where there are oil facilities, where there are weapons research facilities.
I really wanted to get to the Kurds. There are an estimated 35 to 40 million of them in the region. But do they have the necessary heavy equipment and especially the motivation to fight against the Iranian regime in favor of the US?
I don’t really see it yet. The Kurds do not have heavy equipment, and their relationship to the West, but also to the countries in which they live (Iran, Turkey, Syria), is very specific. They are persecuted from all sides. The West has already used and then betrayed the Kurds once – for example during the Syrian civil war, when they fought against Assad. When they had accomplished their task, the West abandoned them and left them to the onslaught of the Turkish army. They started attacking them with heavy weapons, artillery and air force, and the West did nothing about it. The Kurds are therefore extremely wary of the US.
On the other hand, they will accept any help, and if the Tehran regime really falters and only retains control of the big cities, the Kurds could take advantage.
So could this be their motivation to join the fights? Gaining territory?
Independence. They are said to be the largest nation that does not have its own state. Their main motivation is to get an independent Kurdistan. If there was an opportunity to break away their own territory, they would go for it. However, they encounter enormous resistance not only in Iran, but especially in Turkey, which is cracking down on any Kurdish independence efforts.
While the operation in Iran is underway, the Israeli army (IDF) has expanded its positions in southern Lebanon. But the IDF’s Northern Command says a major ground invasion is unlikely until the situation with Iran calms down. Is this a scare tactic, or is Israel really unable to afford two major wars at once?
Israel could afford it, it has the means. Lebanon is a very weak state today. Israel is not fighting there with the Lebanese army, but with Hezbollah, which in previous years was severely decimated in terms of personnel and material by the strikes of the Israeli secret services and air force.
The problem is rather political. Although most Israelis support Benjamin Netanyahu in the fight against Iran, he is deeply unpopular on other issues – especially in left-wing circles. A ground invasion of Lebanon would immediately bring dead Israeli soldiers and with it huge domestic criticism. This is what Netanyahu wants to avoid. Therefore, in my opinion, the war with Hezbollah will continue to be primarily in the air and at the level of intelligence operations.
