It’s an unsolved mystery, but China has already resumed operations in the strait
Taiwan’s military has become accustomed to the daily task of tracking Chinese warplanes flying near the island. Some days there are few. In others, much more. But its presence is almost constant.
So when aircraft suddenly stopped flying over the island for nearly two weeks, the silence was both surprising and deeply intriguing.
The silence was broken this Thursday, with five People’s Liberation Army (PLA) aircraft operating around the Taiwan Strait in the last 24 hours, according to the Taiwanese Armed Forces, with several of them flying close to the median line that divides the strait.
Analysts say this was the longest pause in Chinese air activity since Taiwan began publicly releasing daily military data.
“Frankly, this is unlike anything we’ve seen in recent history in terms of PLA activity around Taiwan,” admits Ben Lewis, founder of PLATracker, an open data platform that tracks Chinese military movements around Taiwan, Japan and the South China Sea, to CNN.
“Since the Taiwanese Ministry of Defense began releasing this data in 2020, the trend has been a constant increase,” highlights Lewis. “And now, this lull, which maybe has ended, maybe not, represents a very significant change in the pattern.”
As of February 27, Taiwan has recorded 13 consecutive days without Chinese warplanes flying over the island.
A brief exception occurred on March 6, when two aircraft were detected in the southwestern corner of Taiwan’s air defense identification zone, but analysts say the overall pattern still represents a notable break from recent years of increasing Chinese military activity.
The sudden tranquility intrigued analysts and raised a series of possible explanations.
One theory is that Beijing may be trying to avoid escalating tensions ahead of a meeting planned for later this month between Chinese leader Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump, where trade, technology and Taiwan are expected to be central topics.
“If I were in Las Vegas, I would attribute it to Trump’s visit,” says Lewis.
Others have pointed to the war involving Iran and the potential impact on global energy markets, although analysts say that link is less certain.
Some observers also note that China’s annual parliamentary meetings, known as the “Two Sessions,” are ending this week, a period when military activity has occasionally declined in the past.
Taiwan’s Defense Minister Wellington Koo urged caution when drawing conclusions from the calm, noting that Chinese naval activity around Taiwan continued throughout the period.
“There are a lot of theories out there,” Koo reminded journalists this Wednesday. “But we still see Chinese warships operating around Taiwan every day, and these efforts to turn the Taiwan Strait into China’s internal waters have not stopped.”
In fact, Taiwan continued to monitor several Chinese warships operating around the island throughout the period, even as the sky above remained unusually quiet.
Lewis says the limited number of aircraft detected Thursday may not signal a complete return to normality.
The flights occurred on the same day that a US Navy P-8 surveillance aircraft transited the Taiwan Strait, in a demonstration, according to the 7th Fleet, of “Washington’s commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific”, and the Chinese planes may have been sent simply to monitor the American aircraft.
Still, the response appeared muted compared to previous incidents when U.S. ships or aircraft passed through the waterway.
“Relative to previous incidents when the US Navy transited the Taiwan Strait, the number of Chinese aircraft sent was actually quite low,” Lewis points out.
This uncertainty makes analysts closely watch upcoming events.
Over the past five years, Beijing has drastically increased the number of aircraft it sends near Taiwan, gradually normalizing what would previously have been considered a major military incursion.
Within days, Taiwan reported dozens of Chinese aircraft operating near the island.
In this context, Lewis reiterates, the sudden disappearance of flights was as surprising as their return.
“Before, five aircraft made headlines”, he concludes. “Now we’re talking about zero, and that’s what’s unusual.”
For now, the mystery remains unsolved.
