In his first official statement, which was read out by a state television announcer, Mozhtaba promised revenge for the fallen and confirmed his intention to keep the Strait of Hormuz blocked. He warned neighboring countries to quickly close US military bases, otherwise they would become legitimate targets.
A wish for a revolution
On the side of the attacking coalition, two distinct narratives are taking shape. While US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu publicly declare that their goal is to create the conditions to topple the Iranian regime from within, the intelligence community is skeptical. Sima Shine, the former head of research for the Israeli Mossad, as well as other experts, call expectations of an immediate revolution “wishful thinking.”
Former Israeli officials warn that the decisive factor in the success of the war is the fate of 440 kilograms of enriched uranium. This material is said to be and remains hidden deep underground. If the regime keeps the material, said Joab Rosenberg, the former deputy chief of military intelligence, “our victory will turn into a loss” as new leader Mojtaba Khamenei can drastically speed up the bomb-making process.
Diplomatic tensions are also growing between allies. The Arab League has condemned Iran’s actions as “reckless”, but Gulf Arab countries are increasingly frustrated at being used as a shield for a conflict they did not instigate. Many analysts predict that this crisis will force the Gulf states to reconsider their security dependence on the US.
Meanwhile, other actors intervene in the situation. Ukraine, for example, has announced that it will send its drone experts to help allies with defense. In turn, French President Emmanuel Macron strongly condemned attacks on French forces in Iraqi Kurdistan following threats from the pro-Iran group Ashab Alkahf.
Paralyzed business
An economic war brings with it similarly devastating consequences. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 million barrels of oil a day normally pass, which represents about a fifth of global consumption, sent Brent oil prices above $100 per barrel earlier in the week. Iranian military officials openly warn that the world must prepare for a price of $200 per barrel.
This shortfall hits Asia the hardest, which absorbs almost 90 percent of exports from this strait. The transition to other suppliers (for example, from the USA) is complicated, because Asian refineries are technologically set up to process Middle Eastern heavy and medium acid oil.
The consequences are so drastic. The Philippines, which is 95 percent dependent on oil from the Middle East, has already ordered civil servants to switch to a four-day work week. Thailand has implemented widespread austerity measures, including regulating air conditioners in public buildings to 26 degrees Celsius. Vietnam and Bangladesh are facing panic as diesel prices have risen by almost 60 percent month-on-month.
And Europe is also affected. British and European markets are reacting nervously to the production shutdown of the Qatari company QatarEnergy. Other countries are also introducing measures – France and TotalEnergies have temporarily capped fuel prices, which South Korea has also joined. In turn, Japan launched subsidies for distributors.
In an effort to stabilize the situation, the International Energy Agency (IEA) announced the release of 400 million barrels of oil from the reserves of 32 countries. The most resilient economy in this crisis is China, which in the months before the war increased its oil purchases and built reserves of 1.2 billion barrels (coverage for about 115 days).
Paradoxically, President Donald Trump sees the economic side partly as an advantage. He declared that the United States, as “the largest producer of oil in the world”, would benefit from high prices, and he defended the attacks themselves by claiming that the US had already won the war. “They have been killing innocent people all over the world for 47 years and now I, as the 47th President of the United States of America, am killing them,” he said on Truth Social.
Hundreds dead, thousands displaced
The conflict claimed hundreds of lives in less than two weeks. More than 1,200 people have lost their lives in Iran, but Tehran is cautious about releasing new numbers. Civilian victims also include an incident in southern Iran, where a girls’ school in the city of Minab, which was located near a military base, was attacked.
In Lebanon, as a result of Israeli attacks on Hezbollah, more than 300 people were killed, and another 500,000 were displaced. The United States lost seven soldiers. Another 20 wounded were evacuated to a military hospital in Landstuhl, Germany. 11 people have lost their lives in Israel since the start of the war.
As for foreign workers in Arab states, more than 12 people died (2 foreigners in Oman, 2 Bangladeshi citizens in Saudi Arabia, 2 border guards in Kuwait, 1 driver in the UAE, 1 French soldier in Erbil, Iraq).
Attacked ships and shot down drones
Since February 28, at least 18 commercial vessels have been attacked. Among them Safesea Vishnu (hit by a boat), Mayuree Naree (three missing sailors stuck in the engine room) or Zefyros. Since Monday, only six vessels have passed through the Strait of Hormuz.
There were also 10 attacks on oil facilities and depots in Bahrain, Oman, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar. Saudi Arabia shot down dozens of attacking drones in just a few hours. The United States has already evacuated over 32,000 American citizens from the Gulf.
Photo of the week:
What else awaits us:
- German Chancellor Friedrich Merz will visit Norway, with Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Stør, he will see the Andøya space center and the NATO military exercise. Both will also meet Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney.
- Interim Venezuelan President Delcy Rodríguez was scheduled to visit Colombia as part of her first foreign trip. The AFP agency, citing the Colombian Department of Diplomacy, reported that the trip was canceled.
