() in 2022, the Northeast presents a challenging picture for the president in this election. The government’s assessment and the PT’s rejection in the region are slightly worse, a scenario that adds to splits in the allied base in at least 6 of the 9 states.
The region was the only one in the country where the PT member won four years ago, but the difference was so big (69.3% to 30.7%, 12.5 million more votes) that it offset the defeat in the rest of Brazil and took him to a third term. Allies say that repeating a landslide victory in the Northeast is essential for re-election.
Polls show that Lula remains supported by the majority of voters in the Northeast after three years in office, but .
In March 2022, 27% of voters in the Northeast, according to Datafolha. In the survey carried out by the institute this month, 33% refuse to vote for him. The then president (PL) was rejected by 62% four years ago.
In that 2022 poll, Lula recorded support from 67% of northeastern voters in the second round against 26% for Bolsonaro, a percentage that remained stable until the eve of the first round. Now, the institute points to the president with 59% to 30% against the senator (PL-RJ) in the region.
In both surveys, the margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points among voters in the Northeast.
The government’s assessment of the region remains positive, but has also worsened over the current term. In September 2023, 49% of residents believed that management was excellent or good and 21% rated it as bad or terrible. In the most recent survey, the gap narrowed to 41% to 29%.
For the PT, the positive point is that rejection of Flávio has grown in the region since last year. In June, 33% said they would not vote for him, a percentage that rose to 42% the following month, encouraged by Eduardo Bolsonaro to try to avoid it. Now it’s 52%.
It is still below the 64% who refused to vote for the former president on the eve of the first round of the 2022 election.
In addition to popularity, another challenge has worried the PT campaign in the Northeast: the splits in the allied base. There are disagreements within the PT itself, disputes for power that already target the 2030 election and on state platforms.
The state where the president received the highest number of votes, Piauí is one of the scenes of these conflicts. Governor Rafael Fonteles (PT) disagreed with his predecessor, the Minister of Development and Social Assistance, Wellington Dias (PT), over the choice of candidate for vice-governor – and potential successor in 2030.
Fonteles chose an ally, Washington Bandeira, who left the judiciary to form his secretariat three years ago. Dias was against it, and it was rumored in the local PT that he was trying to get his son into the position, which he publicly denied.
The impasse would have ended last week, with a meeting at Fonteles’ house after months of absence. Since the beginning of the government, however, both groups have been in conflict over the main Executive posts, and PT members say that the former governor has recently lost space.
Furthermore, PSD and , which lead the two Senate seats on the Fonteles ticket, broke the alliance that existed between them, with disaffiliations and public criticism. The two parties are the PT’s bet to defeat the national president of the PP, senator Ciro Nogueira, who opposes Lula and will seek re-election.
In the PT of Bahia, the minister of the Civil House, , and the leader of the government in the Senate, , have not understood each other for some time. The dispute led to a break with senator Ângelo Coronel (now without a party) and pressure for Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) to give up re-election to the government and Costa to run – an idea refuted by the Wagner group, which wants one of its own to succeed the current governor in 2030.
In Ceará, with the PT governor Elmano de Freitas threatened by the candidacy of (PSDB), there is still a dispute for the Senate. The government leader in the Chamber, (PT), diverges from the strategy of the Minister of Education, (PT), of expanding the coalition by offering the seat to the Senate. With the intention of being a candidate, Guimarães states that the election of senators loyal to Lula is as important as the re-election itself. “There is no Lula 4 without strength in the Senate. Imagine if the Bolsonarists have a majority”, he says.
In other states, the problem is due to an excess of candidates from the base, which can make street campaigning difficult and cause wear and tear during the election. The mayor of Recife and national president of the PSB, João Campos, wants Lula exclusively in his campaign, while the governor of Pernambuco, Raquel Lyra, switched from the PSDB to the PSD in search of the PT’s support.
The governor of Maranhão, Carlos Brandão, launched his nephew as a candidate and to support his vice, who is from the PT. The PT members are now approaching the mayor of São Luís, Eduardo Braide (PSD), until then an opponent more linked to the right, and are working with the idea of forming a double platform, but there is fear about the candidates’ real commitment in this scenario.
In Paraíba, vice-governor Lucas Ribeiro (PP) disputes Lula with the mayor of João Pessoa, Cícero Lucena (MDB) – who threatens to remain neutral if the PT insists on the double platform. The election could also cause headaches in Brasília, as the president of , (-PB), tries to convince the PT member to campaign for the Senate for his father.
PT’s executive secretary, Henrique Fontana says that the division of the base requires “attention and care”, but refutes that it is a cause for concern. “It is better to face this complex challenge of excess support than to have no support”, he states.
The governor of Rio Grande do Norte, Fátima Bezerra (PT), faces difficulties in building her succession after breaking with her vice president and becoming a minority in the Legislative Assembly. In Sergipe, governor Fábio Mitidieri (PSD) promised to support Lula even with his party, the PSD, launching a candidate for President. In Alagoas, the Lulist candidacy will be led by the Minister of Transport and former governor (MDB).
