According to the latest forecasts of the US office (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, editor’s note), it is more than likely that the year 2026 will be the warmest in the history of measurements. Scientists warn against early the return of the climate phenomenon El Niño, which could drive global temperatures to record highs already during the coming summer.
El Niño is manifested by a significant warming of surface waters in the equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean. It occurs when the regular trade winds weaken, which triggers a domino effect in the atmosphere. The result is disruption of normal air circulation, which all over the world it brings extremes in the form of devastating rainfall on the one hand and catastrophic drought on the other.
“The probability that El Niño will occur between July and September this year is 50-60%,” said meteorology. The energy released into the atmosphere during an active El Niño phenomenon is so massive that it can temporarily skew the Earth’s average global temperature upwards.
Experts from NOAA therefore point out that the years marked by this phenomenon are regularly recorded in the history of measurements as the absolute warmest. “All else being held constant, a typical El Niño event typically causes a temporary increase in global average temperature of 0.1-0.2 degrees Celsius,” explained meteorologist Nat Johnson.
He also explained that this climate cycle repeats itself at irregular intervals, usually every two to seven years. The name El Niño itself comes from Spanish. Peruvian and Ecuadorian fishermen started with it mark the arrival of an unusually warm currentwhich appeared just in time for Christmas and dramatically reduced their catches. However, the phenomenon also has its opposite – the cold phase of La Niña, while between these two extremes there is a so-called neutral phase.
