The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed for almost four weeks – plunging global oil markets into chaos – and there is no clear prospect of an end to the situation.
Iran’s threats and attacks on vessels in the Gulf have increased the transit risk to the point of halting almost all traffic through the narrow waterway, the main corridor for about 20% of the world’s oil and natural gas, as well as essential fertilizers for growing agricultural products on which the world depends.
As the energy crisis worsens, US President Donald Trump has promoted , while mobilizing to send thousands of additional troops to the Middle East and studying the possibility of escorting oil tankers by the US Navy.
But Iran still has the advantage in many respects – in part because of its unconventional warfare methods, including cheap drones and sea mines, and in part because of its geographic location.
Considering these two factors together makes it more difficult for the United States or other countries to defend vessels or ensure the military security of the strait.
And it is profitable for Iran to maintain control. Iranian authorities said they will continue to charge fees for the safe passage of some oil tankers through the strait, after Lloyd’s List Intelligence released a report on March 23 saying that at least two vessels paid large sums to pass through it.
Why does geography favor Iran?
The Strait of Hormuz is about 24 miles (38 kilometers) wide at its narrowest point, according to shipping analytics firm Vortexa. And almost all maritime traffic passes through two even narrower main routes.
“It’s described as a choke point for good reason. Supposedly, there are many choke points around the world. But it could be argued that this is a particularly challenging choke point because there are no alternatives,” said Nick Childs, senior researcher for Naval Forces and Maritime Security at IISS (International Institute for Strategic Studies).
Part of the challenge for vessels and any potential naval escort operations lies in the extreme restriction of maneuvering space.
“In the open sea, there is always the option of changing course; in a choke point or narrow sea, that option is impossible,” said Kevin Rowlands, editor of the magazine at the think tank Royal United Services Institute.
“This means that Iran doesn’t necessarily have to search and find its targets. It can simply wait,” he added.
This effectively creates a “kill zone,” he explained, in which the warning time for an attack can be mere seconds.
Not to mention that Iran has nearly 1,000 miles of coastline from which it can launch anti-ship missiles. These missile batteries are mobile, making them difficult to eliminate, and the Gulf’s extensive coastline means Iran can strike far beyond the strait itself.
“On the northern Iranian side, it is not a plain. There are hills, mountains, valleys, urbanized areas and coastal islands. All of this makes it difficult to detect an imminent threat and makes it easier for Iran to conceal mobile weapons systems,” Rowlands, former head of the Royal Navy’s Center for Strategic Studies, told CNN by email.
What threats do vessels face in the Strait of Hormuz?
Analysts say Iran’s ability to damage commercial ships through its offensive arsenal has diminished since the start of the war.
“However, it is virtually impossible to reduce the risk to zero, and we can expect ships to face a residual level of threat for some time from some or all of these systems,” Rowlands said.
According to Rowlands, the complexity of the threats means that any vessel escort operation will likely need to go well beyond a traditional convoy of warships sailing ahead and behind oil tankers.
“A naval mission is more likely to utilize a layered defense approach, with satellite surveillance, patrol aircraft and drones. Ships may follow a specific route that has been cleared of mines,” he said.
The US has managed to degrade many of Iran’s conventional naval capabilities, Childs said. But the biggest threat still comes from Iran’s unconventional arsenal, such as drones, small fast attack craft and even unmanned boats loaded with explosives.
“If the Iranians decide to mine the sea, it is possible to remove the mines from the stern of a seemingly harmless sailing boat,” Childs told CNN.
“Although the US has likely already neutralized major Iranian submarines, there are still ‘midget submarines’ to consider,” he added, referring to small submarines capable of operating in shallow waters.
U.S. allies including the United Kingdom, France and Bahrain are also working to develop viable plans to protect international shipping in the waterway.
What is the current situation?
Iran has attacked at least 19 vessels near the Strait of Hormuz, the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman.
Analysts note that Iran does not even need to destroy vessels to achieve its goal of disrupting global energy trade. As long as the threat remains high enough, shipping companies are unlikely to take the risk of resuming transit. Some vessels with links to Iran, China, India and Pakistan, however, managed to cross the strait.
Iran has stated that “non-hostile vessels” can transit the strait if they coordinate with Iranian authorities. The Lloyd’s List Intelligence report stated that at least 16 vessels managed to cross, including one that reportedly paid a $2 million fee, as well as several “zombie” tankers that used false identities of dismantled vessels.
A CNN was unable to independently verify the report.
Even if all tanker traffic eventually resumes, it will take time to clear the backlog: nearly 2,000 vessels are stuck in the Persian Gulf, according to the International Maritime Organization.
The Trump administration has trumpeted what it sees as diplomatic progress. Iran, in turn, maintains the position that it is not in negotiations with the US, although it has acknowledged the exchange of messages through mediators.
Trump’s statements about negotiations come in the context of sending thousands of American marines and sailors to the Middle East.
Two American officials told the CNN earlier this week that .
Previously, American officials had also informed the CNN that the MEU (Marine Expeditionary Unit) from the amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli was being sent to the Middle East, without revealing exactly where it would be deployed or in what operations it would be used.
These MEUs are typically used in rescue missions and amphibious operations that require ship-to-shore movements, such as raids and assaults.
This has increased speculation about possible ground troop operations, although the Trump administration has so far said it has ruled out ground operations in Iran.
Military analysts said the US may be counting on the fact that the mere presence of the USS Tripoli and other warships in the region, posing a threat, could be enough to alter Iran’s calculations.
Trump also threatens to attack more targets related to the Iranian oil trade if the country continues to blockade the Strait of Hormuz. Last Friday (20), American armed forces struck military installations in , responsible for around 90% of the country’s crude oil exports.
Sites related to the oil trade on the government-controlled island were not hit, but Trump warned they could be the next targets, which would represent a further escalation.
What is happening in the Middle East?
The United States and Israel are at war with Iran. The conflict began on February 28, when a coordinated attack between the two countries in Tehran.
Several high-ranking officials of the Iranian regime were also killed. Furthermore, the US claims to have , as well as air defense systems, planes and other military targets.
In retaliation, the ayatollahs’ regime launched attacks on the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, Iraq and Oman. Iranian officials say they are targeting only U.S. and Israeli interests in those nations.
More than 1,750 civilians have died in Iran since the start of the war, according to the US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency. The White House, in turn, recorded at least 13 deaths of American soldiers in direct relation to the Iranian attacks.
The conflict also arises. Hezbollah, an armed group supported by Iran, in retaliation for the death of Ali Khamenei. As a result, Israel has carried out aerial offensives against what it says are Hezbollah targets in the neighboring country. Hundreds of people have died on Lebanese territory since then.
With the death of much of its leadership, an Iranian council elected a new supreme leader: . Experts point out that he represents .
Donald Trump showed dissatisfaction with this choice, the . He had said that he would need to be involved in the process and said that Mojtaba would be “unacceptable” to Iran’s leadership.
(With input from Brad Lendon, Hanna Ziady, Helen Regan, Haley Britzky, and Zachary Cohen of CNN)
