Survey released this Monday (30) indicates 41% for the president and 38% for the senator in the first round
Survey by Nexus Research and Intelligence in partnership with BTG Pactual, released this Monday (30) points to a scenario of strong polarization in the 2026 presidential race, with the current President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) tied in the second round and technically tied in the first round, in different simulations.
In the second round scenarios, Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro appear tied with 46% eachand 7% say they would vote blank or null. Against other opponents, the president and pre-candidate for re-election has the advantage: he would win the governor of Minas Gerais, Romeu Zema (Novo), by 46% to 40%, the governor of Goiás, Ronaldo Caiado (PSD), by 46% to 41% and the governor of Rio Grande do Sul, Eduardo Leite (PSD), by 46% to 36%.
2,000 voters were interviewed between March 27 and 29, 2026. The margin of error is two percentage points, with a confidence level of 95%. The research is registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under number BR-07875/2026.
In the main first round scenario, Lula appears with 41% of voting intentions, while Flávio Bolsonaro registers 38%. As the survey’s margin of error is 2pp, the two are technically tied. Names from the so-called third way have residual performance: Caiado and Zema score 4% each.
When the tested PSD candidate is Leite, there is a numerical tie between Lula and Flávio, both with 39%. In this scenario, Zema rises to 5% and the PSD candidate scores 4%. In a simulation without a PSD name, Lula reaches 42%, against 39% for Flávio Bolsonaro, while Zema reaches 6%.
According to the survey, 69% of those interviewed say that the decision to vote in the first round has already been made and should not change, while 30% say they can still change their mind.
In terms of rejection, 49% of those interviewed say they would not vote for Lula “at all”, while 48% say the same in relation to Flávio Bolsonaro, reinforcing the degree of division in the electorate. Caiado and Zema recorded 31% rejection, while Leite recorded 34%.
In the spontaneous vote, Lula appears with 32% while Flávio has 26% former president Jair Bolsonaro scores 2%.
Government assessment
In the government’s assessment, 44% classify Lula’s administration as bad or terriblewhile 35% consider it excellent or good. The federal government is seen as regular by 21% of respondents. 51% disapprove of the PT’s way of governing and 45% approve.
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