Eves of tension and uncertainty threaten to blow up the talks planned this Saturday to stop a regional war in which the largest global power has been involved and that is breaking one of the pillars of the economy: energy. With the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the hydrocarbon flow passes, blocked in fact Until further notice, Iran shows its veto to enter into peace negotiations with the United States as long as Israel’s bombing of Lebanon does not stop.
The Israeli army is also reluctant to extend the ceasefire to the neighboring country and stop its campaign against the bases of the pro-Iranian Hezbollah militia, mostly civilians, and continued to slow down this Friday. Amid cross accusations of violating the cessation of hostilities, the peace negotiations were faltering just hours before their announced premiere.
The vice president of the United States, JD Vance, who will lead his country’s delegation in the planned negotiations, has already embarked on a trip to Islamabad. Before leaving this Friday, he urged Tehran to “not try to play” with Washington, under penalty of facing “a negotiating team that is not so receptive.”
For the Iranian regime, talks with the United States depend on the ceasefire being extended to Lebanon, which has suffered harsh Israeli attacks in recent days. “Holding talks to end the war depends on the United States’ compliance with ceasefire commitments on all fronts, especially in Lebanon,” said Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Ismail Bagaei.
International sanctions
Tehran includes requests for new concessions on Islamabad’s agenda, such as the lifting of international sanctions, including on financial assets seized abroad, and intends to make them official while passing through Hormuz, contrary to international conventions.
Mahmoud Nabavian, vice president of the National Security and Foreign Policy Commission of Parliament, has assured that Mojtaba Khamenei, the new leader of Iran, “adheres to the fatwa that prohibits nuclear weapons,” reports Ali Falahi. This fatwa (religious edict) was issued by his father, Ali Khamenei, and has been used on multiple occasions by the Iranian authorities as an argument to justify the Islamic Republic’s desire not to join the proliferation of nuclear weapons.
The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz remains almost total, except. The closure of the strategic sea route has caused disruption with few recent precedents in energy supply chains. Most of the ships that have crossed it in recent hours belong to countries with close ties to Tehran, or have been forced to pay a toll despite transiting through free navigation waters, according to Reuters. Many other ships that had planned to resume their voyages after the declaration of the ceasefire have again postponed their plans after in protest of the Israeli attacks in Lebanon.
President Donald Trump has issued a warning to Iran following reports of the charging of transit tolls on oil tankers. “It better not be like that, and if it is, they better stop doing it right now!”, their social network. This Friday, the Republican president assured that Iran “has no cards” and can only “extort the world in the short term through the use of international waters” in the face of the Islamabad negotiations, reports Macarena Vidal Ltd. In another message on social networks, he has once again raised the specter of violence against the adversary country, ensuring that “the only reason” why they “are still alive” is their participation in the contacts in Islamabad.
The Pakistani authorities have reinforced security measures in the country’s capital, with the deployment of the army in the so-called “red zone”, three kilometers around the luxurious Serena hotel, where the negotiations are to take place. Government sources have limited themselves to declaring to Reuters that “the process is underway” and all measures have been adopted to start the peace dialogue. Delegations from both countries tasked with preparing the talks are already on the ground, and are indirectly exchanging organizational plans through Pakistani mediators.
From Lebanon, this Friday, he demanded that the Government of Beirut stop making “free concessions” to Israel, after the Government of Benjamin Netanyahu launched . “We will not accept a return to the previous situation,” Qasem proclaimed in a public message. Given the announcement that the United States will host the first direct negotiations between both countries next week, the Lebanese Executive has insisted that it will not attend if a ceasefire with Israel is not closed first.
Following the bombings on densely populated areas that have claimed more than 300 lives since Wednesday, the World Health Organization (WHO) has warned that Lebanon’s hospitals are already operating at 95% of their capacity with thousands of wounded admitted. Six hospital centers have closed their doors after the bombings, another 12 are partially damaged and 51 primary care centers have also been closed. The attacks recorded in the last few hours have caused the death of a dozen civilians and 13 members of the Lebanese security forces. A fifth of Lebanon’s more than five million residents, particularly those in the south and those in Beirut’s Shiite neighborhoods, have been forced from their homes by bombing.
