Meteorologists’ forecasts for the next few years indicate an increase in average temperatures as well as deepening drought. According to the portal, it is expected that the summer periods of 2026 and 2027 will be significantly affected by the emerging “super El Niño” phenomenon, whose intensity should be record-breaking according to current models.
A new European seasonal model suggests that this phenomenon could increase in intensity equal to the strongest recorded dangerous phenomenon in history, including 1982, 1997 and 2015. Experts warn of far-reaching consequences that will affect the nature of storms, the distribution of precipitation and bring extreme temperature fluctuations.
The “super El Niño” phenomenon, caused by unusually high sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific, has the ability to disrupt global weather patterns. These changes have a direct economic and social impact, affecting agriculture, water supplies and energy demand.
The American National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) also warns of the arrival of the “super El Niño” phenomenon. Although the office is still based on older data, they are also worrying. “The March ENSO outlook indicates a 17% chance of a strong event between August and October 2026. This chance increases to 33% between October and December,” said the head of the research team there, Michelle L’Heureux.
We can already feel the effects of this phenomenon during this summer, but it will probably hit in full force only in the following year. According to the diary that for Europe, it can mean waves of extreme heat, which could even break temperature records from the exceptionally warm year 2024. There is also a real threat of drought, which represents a serious problem especially for farmers.
In addition, experts warn that in combination with global warming, the “super El Niño” may have not only short-term, but also long-term consequences. “Because of the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases, the climate system cannot effectively remove the heat released during a super El Niño before the arrival of the next cycle,” warns climatologist Eric Webb.
This phenomenon is part of the so-called Southern Oscillation – irregular changes in the atmospherewhich causes water temperature fluctuations in the equatorial eastern Pacific. While the warm phase of this cycle is called El Niño, its cold counterpart is called La Niña. Although these changes are taking place only in a limited part of the ocean, their effects are felt all over the world.
The latest forecast is also confirmed by the forecast of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). “This could be the strongest El Niño in 140 years,” said Paul Roundy, an atmospheric physicist at the University at Albany who believes that The upcoming “super El Niño” phenomenon could rewrite the historical tables.
