On Sunday (12), he lost the following. The vote had a record participation of more than 77% of voters and a supermajority for the winning party, which allows the Constitution to be changed. Orbán on Sunday night.
The result calls into question the extent of North American influence in elections around the world and has a direct resonance in Brazil, because Orbán was a central reference for Bolsonarism. The former president () already called him his brother. In November last year, when he traveled to Washington to meet with the president of the United States, Orbán posted online that he was “firmly on the side of the Bolsonaros in these difficult times.”
Last week, the US vice president, , traveled to participate in a rally alongside Orbán. And, as happened in the Argentine elections last year, Trump even promised economic aid to Hungary if the ally was re-elected.
In the WhatsApp groups monitored by Palver over the last 15 days, Vance does not have a single positive message in the exclusive mentions of him in the context of the Hungarian election. Trump concentrates rejection in more than 70% of messages in the period. Orbán, with a 91% rejection rate for messages, is mostly read based on the link with Bolsonaro. The defeat is associated with the weakening of the international right-wing network and a signal for October.
Among left-wing groups, the result in Hungary increased morale, especially in relation to Trump. The narrative circulating is that American support is no guarantee of victory and that record participation brings down any institutional machinery. “Look, Flávio. Hungary defeated Viktor Órban. Bolsonaro loves Órban. Another disciple of Trump defeated. In October, we will defeat the Bolsonaro family, see? Get ready”, says a message that circulated in multiple groups.
In Bolsonarist groups, the defeat is read as an external capture of the global elite: “The Soros Organization took over Hungary” circulates in messages that frame the result as yet another victory of globalism over national sovereignty. This narrative attempts to separate Orbán’s government model from the electoral result. Part of these same groups also dispute the meaning of the winner: “and the ‘leftists’ celebrating. It’s great to see these political illiterates.” The moral shock does not appear explicitly in the messages. What appears is the rush to fit the result into a narrative that preserves the coherence of the field.
For the most rooted Bolsonarism, the defeat removes a reference and leaves a question without an easy answer. The Hungarian model was without losing electoral legitimacy. Now this model has a recorded defeat, with record participation and a supermajority for the opponent, even with the weight of Trump and Vance on the defeated side.
Explicit American support did not save Orbán and, in fact, may have helped to mobilize the opposing camp. Brazil already has concrete information in this direction: tensions surrounding American tariffs last year showed that proximity to Washington can and does strengthen (). If Trump decides to openly support (PL) in October, this support could come more as an asset in the hands of the PT camp than as a boost for the candidate he intends to help.
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