Iran, even in the face of large operational losses, managed to gain a strategic advantage in the conflict against the United States and Israel, said Professor of International Relations at PUC-Rio, Carlos Frederico Coelho, to WW Especial.
American and Israeli forces carried out around 13,000 attacks on military targets in the first month of the war. The losses, according to initial calculations by the Ayatollahs’ regime, exceed US$270 billion.
The campaign degraded the Iranian military’s ability to respond, whether by destroying equipment or assassinating important leaders.
Since the beginning of the bombings, at the end of February, the head of the Supreme Security Council, Ali Larijani and the Minister of Intelligence, Esmaeil Khatib, as a result of attacks by the governments of Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu.
Even so, the remaining Iranian leadership was still able to coordinate tactical responses and keep the theocratic regime functioning. Furthermore, part of the country’s missile and drone infrastructure still resisted the American onslaught.
“In the case of Iran, the first confirmation is that air strikes do not change regimes… Second, the idea that the decapitation of the leadership does not necessarily lead to a more stable scenario,” Coelho told WW Especial.
Throughout the conflict, Iran chose to inflict damage on the global economy and on allies of the US and Israel in the Middle East as a strategy. Over the past few months, the country has closed the Strait of Hormuz, placing mines there and targeting infrastructure in countries such as Oman, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
These factors pushed the price of oil above US$110 and generated a new wave of uncertainty in the global economy. in the face of the conflict and warned of a recession if the situation worsens.
Specifically in the United States, the price of gasoline exceeded US$4 for the first time since 2022.
The Iranians, on the other hand, assemble cheap and easily assembled equipment. The drone
Coelho states that, for the first time, “there is a lower cost” not for those who attack, but for those who defend themselves.
“Iran has been able, through the mass expansion of drones and the like, to resist. And perhaps, from a strategic point of view, to have emerged, despite being operationally defeated, strategically victorious up to this point”, he concludes.
WW Especial
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