Brazilian currency rose 10.4% against the dollar in the year to date; euro had stability in 2026
A consultancy survey carried out with 27 currencies shows that the real had the biggest appreciation against the dollar in 2026. Year-to-date, the increase was 10.4%. The currency in the USA closed at R$4.974 this Monday (April 20, 2026), the lowest value since March 25, when it was R$4.973.
As happened, the real appreciated against the dollar. One of the reasons is the increase in oil prices. The rise in the price of oil and other commodities.
The increase in oil prices also contributes to Brazil’s public accounts. Government (PT) revenue from royalties must be increased, enabling stimulus measures. The (International Monetary Fund) projected Gross Domestic Product growth to 1.9% in 2026, while the war in the Middle East projected expansion of global economic activity.
INTEREST DIFFERENTIAL
The contractionary monetary policy also contributed to the appreciation of the real. According to the einvestment specialist at the analysis house Top GainLeonardo Santana, “pEven though we have the prospect of cutting interest rates again, we have one of the highest real interest rates in the world“.
The BC (Central Bank) maintained the basic rate, the Selic, at 15% per year from June 2025 to March 2026. According to the president of the monetary authority, Gabriel Galípolo, the decisions “conservative” created a “” to cut interest rates, leaving the country well placed in the scenario.
The Central Bank cut the base interest rate and signaled that the monetary easing cycle will be shorter than expected. Financial agents increased the amount expected for Brazil in 2026. The percentage is above the target ceiling, which is 3% and has a tolerance of up to 4.50%.
High real interest rates – the difference between Selic and inflation – provide more security for the real and attract foreign capital. In the balance between contributions and redemptions, international investors placed R$67.3 billion on the São Paulo Stock Exchange in the year to April 16, the latest data available.
RISK FOR DOLLAR WITHDRAWAL
Despite the favorable moment for the appreciation of the real, Santana explains that the inspector may put pressure on the currency again, especially in an election year.
“This scenario could be reversed, as we are in an election year. If the government decides, beyond what was expected, fiscal concerns will return. This is what, without a doubt, could lead to a greater withdrawal of dollars from Brazil, causing the currency to rise”, he stated.
