The Genial/Quaest survey released this Wednesday, 29th, shows candidates supported by President Lula (PT) in good conditions to defeat the political group of governor Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans) in the São Paulo race for the Senate. The election is considered a priority for the allies of former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL).
Simone Tebet (PSB), former Minister of Planning, scored 14% of voting intentions in the survey, emerging as the best placed among all the names tested. Her name is already consolidated as a left-wing pre-candidate for the Senate in São Paulo. The second vacancy, which is still open, could be for Marina Silva (Rede), former holder of the Environment portfolio, who scores 12% in the survey, or Márcio França (PSB), former minister of Entrepreneurship and former governor of São Paulo, who also scores 12%.
The best performing name in Tarcísio’s group, at the moment, is the federal deputy and former state secretary of Public Security, Guilherme Derrite (PP), with 8% in all scenarios tested. He ties, within the margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points, with França and Marina. Derrite is also the one who has presented himself as a candidate for the longest time and his pre-candidacy should be made official next week.
Next comes federal deputy Ricardo Salles (Novo), who scores 6%. André do Prado, president of the State Legislative Assembly, reaches 7%, considering its highest rates. The second Tarcissist vacancy should be given to Prado, with Salles running independently.
One of the scenarios also tested the name of influencer Pablo Marçal (União), which accounts for 11% of voting intentions for the São Paulo Senate. He is currently ineligible following decisions by the Electoral Court regarding the video “cutting” contest in the pre-election period in 2024, when Marçal ran for mayor of São Paulo. In March, he joined the Union and signaled that he could run for an elected position if he reversed the convictions in the Superior Electoral Court (TSE).
The names of José Aníbal (PSDB), who scored 5%, and federal deputy Baleia Rossi (MDB), who also scored 5%, were also tested. The majority of those interviewed, however, have not yet chosen who they will vote for as senator: up to 24% say they are undecided and the number of people who declare a blank or invalid vote reaches 33%.
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This year, voters will choose two Senate candidates at the polls for eight-year terms. The open vacancies are currently occupied by Mara Gabrilli (PSD) and Giordano (MDB), who are not expected to run for re-election. The winners join astronaut Marcos Pontes (PL) — who defeated France four years ago, with support from Bolsonaro.
In the dispute for state government, the current incumbent, Tarcísio de Freitas, leads the way against Fernando Haddad (PT), former Minister of Finance, in the first Genial/Quaest survey of the year. About five months before the first round, Tarcísio has 38% of voting intentions, against 26% for Haddad. He is also the favorite to defeat the PT member in a possible second round.
Data
A total of 1,650 voters in the state of São Paulo, over 16 years old, were consulted between the 23rd and 27th of April. The confidence interval is 95%, which means the number of times that the sample used is expected to actually represent the population. The research is registered with the Superior Electoral Court with code SP-03583/2026.
