The former mayor of Salvador (), with 41% of voting intentions, and the governor (), with 38%, appear technically tied in a possible second round for the Government of Bahia, according to a Quaest survey released this Wednesday (29).
In the first round, ACM Neto appears with 41%, and Jerônimo scores 37%. Party leader Ronaldo Mansur (PSOL) appears with 1%, and José Estêvão (DC) did not score.
Blank or invalid votes total 10%, and another 11% of voters said they still didn’t know who they were going to vote for.
In an alternative scenario, without José Estevão, ACM Neto has 41%, Jerônimo Rodrigues, 36%, and Ronaldo Mansur, 1%. White, null and non-votes make up 8%, while undecided voters reach 14%.
The survey was commissioned by Genial Investimentos and registered under number BA-03657/2026.
The margin of error is three percentage points, plus or minus, and the confidence level is 95%. The survey interviewed 1,200 voters in Bahia from Thursday (23) to Monday (27) through personal, home and in-person interviews.
Assessment
The survey also heard from voters about the evaluation of the government of Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT). Among those interviewed, 25% consider the management to be negative, 33% evaluate it as regular, and 37% as positive.
Senate
In the dispute for the Senate, the former governor (PT) leads with 24% of intentions, considering the combination of total votes, technically tied with the senator, who has 22%.
Next come the candidates from the opposition camp: the former minister (), with 9%, and senator Angelo Coronel (), with 6%.
Professor Delliana Ricelli (PSOL) scored 1% and Marcelo Santatana (DC) did not score.
Campaign strategies
The succession to the Government of Bahia must repeat the 2022 clash between Jerônimo and ACM Neto. This time, however, the dispute, as a possible pure PT ticket and a unified opposition in the state.
As in 2022, the PT must adopt the strategy of nationalizing the dispute in search of a married vote in Jerônimo and . This time, however, it will enter the dispute seeking to expand its hegemony in the state: it will have PT candidates for the government and for the two Senate seats.
ACM Neto, who adopted a strategy of neutrality in relation to the national election and did not declare a vote in 2022, now signals that he will be “against the PT” in 2026. But the strategy will be to focus on state issues and avoid direct clashes with President Lula.
Unlike 2022, when the PL ran in its own lane, the largest opposition parties will be united in Bahia. The group was reinforced with the arrival of senator Angelo Coronel, who was elected in 2018 within the PT alliance.
