“The turning point is clearly June. This is the time when something is going to have to give. We don’t have months to go.”
There has been no shortage of signs over the last few weeks.
At the end of March, the director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Fatih Birol, said that the war in Iran is business as usual.
A few days later, the same Fatih Birol reinforced his warning: loss of 11 million barrels per day, more than the two major oil crises combined.
The European Commission has already presented a list of measures to try to alleviate the consequences of this energy crisis.
Taking a more global view, the director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Kristalina Georgieva, commented: “the impact of high prices. Oil is a global product traded globally.”
Now, there is a specific date for the biggest energy shock ever: “The turning point is clearly June. This is the moment when something is going to have to give. We don’t have months” to go.
The new warning is from Frederic Lasserre, an analyst at Gunvor, in . The oil market will be a month – or less – away from critical point due to decrease in reserves global. It will be a “great pain” for the global economy.
O Strait of Hormuz closed, oil production and refining in the Persian Gulf halted, pressure on the global economy.
“We are in the presence of biggest energy supply crisis that has ever happened in history”, analyzes Antônio Costa Silva.
He reinforces that, every day, 20 million barrels less reach the global market, due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
The former Minister of Economy, and energy expert, predicts that the high price crisis will “also degenerate into a supply crisis. The signs are all there.”
Still focusing on the Strait of Hormuz, if it remains closed for a while longer, “it will be dramatic for world economies. That’s what’s on the table.”
O end of the war in Iran, even if it were immediate, would not cancel the scenario expected for June: the Strait of Hormuz would be gradually reopened over the course of a month, production and oil flow would only be sufficient again between six to eight weeks after the peace announcement. And we are already on May 8th.
Not forgetting the many infrastructures that are damaged in the Persian Gulf.
OHigh oil prices… are yet to comewhen there is a correction in the markets.
António Costa Silva predicts that normality will only return for “a long time” and is pessimistic for the short-term future: “This year is going to be difficult and, most likely, the first half of next year will be difficult”.
