The economic strategy of the Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) government has definitively entered electoral mode. Faced with a presidential contest projected to be tight and highly polarized, the Planalto began to accelerate credit programs, debt renegotiation and consumption incentives in an attempt to recover segments of the electorate that demonstrate frustration with the cost of living.
For analysts, the movement reveals an important change in the objective of the government’s economic measures. More than looking for big jumps in popularity, the goal now would be to produce small shifts capable of deciding a balanced election.
“The government is releasing a cannonball to see if it hits a few flies,” said political scientist Cristiano Noronha, from Arko Advice, during Mapa de Risco, a political program from the InfoMoneythis Friday (8).
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The assessment is that Planalto works to win a few percentage points in specific groups of the electorate, especially among indebted families, informal workers and sectors of the lower middle class.
Microeconomics became a priority
In recent months, the government has expanded initiatives aimed at credit and popular consumption. Among them are new versions of Desenrola, expansion of Minha Casa Minha Vida for higher income brackets, special lines for micro-entrepreneurs and programs aimed at app drivers and self-employed workers.
According to XP policy analyst Bianca Lima, the government’s focus is precisely on a portion of the population that today feels economically pressured, despite positive macroeconomic indicators.
“You have a layer of the population that feels a little orphaned,” he said.
In her reading, this group does not perceive itself to be covered by social programs aimed at the poorest base, nor by the opportunities for advancement associated with the higher classes.
“When you look down, you see a lot of government assistance. When you look up, you see yourself far from the elite,” he said.
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Mismatch between economy and sensation
The scenario helps to explain why the government is facing difficulties in converting positive economic numbers into a more consistent improvement in popularity.
Today, Brazil lives with unemployment at historically low levels and growth in formal income. Even so, qualitative research shows that a relevant part of the electorate continues to associate the current period with a loss of purchasing power and high debt.
“The macroeconomic indicators are positive, but people don’t feel that life is improving,” said Bianca Lima.
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For Noronha, this feeling helps to limit the political reach of the measures announced by the government.
“People feel inflation when they go to the supermarket,” he said. 
According to him, even with economic growth and controlled inflation for part of the period, voters’ daily lives continue to be marked by high interest rates, a feeling of financial tightness and economic insecurity.
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Election of few points
The government’s bet is that small improvements in economic perception will be enough to change the electoral result.
In Noronha’s assessment, the objective is not to rebuild the historical levels of approval of Lulismo, but to guarantee the minimum necessary advantage in a polarized dispute.
“You’re going to spend a lot of money trying to gain 2, 3, 4 percentage points,” he said.
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The logic reflects a scenario in which Lula and Bolsonarism already concentrate the majority of the electorate, reducing space for large vote migrations.
“Ugly is losing an election”, summarized the analyst when commenting on Planalto’s strategy.
The Risk Map, the policy program of the InfoMoneyairs every Friday, starting at 5am, on YouTube and your favorite podcast player.
