Colombia goes to the polls this Sunday (21) to choose between keeping the left in power, with Iván Cepeda, a candidate supported by President Gustavo Petro, and Abelardo De La Espriella, “El Tigre”, representing the right and supported by Donald Trump.
In the first round, held on May 31, De La Espriella finished ahead by around 673 thousand votes. Now, the dispute enters the final stretch amid a scenario of strong polarization and polls that indicate a narrow advantage for the conservative candidate.
According to political scientist Bruno Soller, partner at Real Time Big Data, the race reproduces a movement observed in other countries in the region, based on the confrontation between right-wing and left-wing projects. The difference, in the Colombian case, is the weight of the public security agenda.
“De La Espriella comes with a very firm speech on the issue of public security, reactivating some of the main pillars of Uribismo”, says Soller, in reference to the legacy of former president Álvaro Uribe in the fight against the FARC and drug trafficking.
Uribe’s support in the second round consolidated the union of the conservative camp around the right-wing candidacy. For Soller, the movement helps explain the candidate’s advantage.
Cepeda is expected to perform stronger among lower-income voters and in coastal regions, while De La Espriella is expected to expand his lead in richer areas, such as Antioquia, whose capital is Medellín.
The election will also be a test of Petro’s legacy. The first left-wing president in Colombian history, he has seen his approval rating improve in recent months, which keeps Cepeda competitive in the final stretch.
Still, Soller assesses that the right enters the decisive vote with a small advantage. “It is very likely that De La Espriella will end up having a slight advantage and become a right-wing president in Colombia again,” he says.
Beyond Colombian borders, the result will be closely watched by governments in the region. A victory for Cepeda tends to preserve the rapprochement between Colombia, Brazil and Mexico. A triumph for De La Espriella would represent Bogotá’s greater alignment with the agenda defended by the White House.
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