Michelle Bolsonaro’s public criticism of senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) may represent more than family friction. For analysts heard in Mapa de Risco, the policy program of the InfoMoneythe episode marks the definitive entry of the former first lady into the dispute for influence over the future of Bolsonarism.
In the experts’ opinion, the video in which he indicates that he does not intend to campaign for the senator in certain states should be interpreted as a political movement at a time when the right is discussing his presidential succession.
“She perhaps realized that she was losing political space and that she needed a more forceful measure to delimit her own square within this field. It doesn’t seem to me that the video was just a reaction to the Ceará episode. It seems like an attempt to affirm that she continues to be an important leader and that she needs to be considered in the group’s decisions”, said political scientist Leonardo Barreto.
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According to him, Michelle brings together electoral attributes that no other member of the Bolsonaro family has today, especially among women and evangelical voters. This makes her influence go beyond her role as a campaign supporter.
For João Paulo Machado, a policy analyst at XP, the moment chosen for the demonstration also draws attention. In his assessment, Michelle had been facing a period of less political protagonism and found in the crisis an opportunity to return to the center of articulations.
“It was a moment of fragility in Michelle’s political articulation. The video ended up working as a way of showing that she is still in the game, that she still has weight within Bolsonarism and that she wants to participate in decisions about the future of this political group”, he stated.
According to analysts, the movement also increases the former first lady’s bargaining power for negotiations leading up to the election campaign. Even without running for President, Michelle can influence alliances, the composition of tickets and the mobilization of segments considered strategic for the right.
João Paulo Machado assesses that, ultimately, the crisis also preserves Michelle as an alternative if the electoral scenario changes again.
“What she could gain would be in the eventual possibility of her being leveraged as a candidate for this political group. Even though this hypothesis today is not the most likely, maintaining protagonism is important for any leadership that wants to remain influential”, he stated.
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For Leonardo Barreto, the episode shows that the dispute within Bolsonarism is no longer just about who will represent the right at the polls. It also involves who will exert influence on this electorate in the coming years. In this context, Michelle showed that she does not intend to play just a supporting role.
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