Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) will begin in the coming weeks a sequence of trips across the country with the aim of structuring state platforms, consolidating regional alliances and expanding the political presence of the right before the first major national event of his presidential pre-campaign, scheduled for March 30, in São Paulo.
The itinerary includes commitments in the Northeast and South and involves everything from party affiliation events to the launch of state candidacies. Behind the scenes of the Liberal Party, the agenda is interpreted as an initial stage of political organization of the campaign, aimed at setting up electoral bases in the states and consolidating the alliances that should support the senator’s presidential project.
The strategy designed by allies combines two movements considered central to the candidacy: trying to expand the presence of the right in regions historically less favorable to Bolsonarism, such as the Northeast, and reinforcing electoral strongholds where the conservative camp traditionally records stronger performance, such as the South region.
The first stop on the agenda is scheduled for March 21, in Natal, where the PL intends to formalize the right-wing majority ticket for the elections in Rio Grande do Norte. The event is expected to confirm former mayor Álvaro Dias as a candidate for state government, with Babá Pereira as vice-president. For the Senate, the composition includes senator Styvenson Valentim (PSDB) and the military Colonel Hélio (PL).
Behind the scenes of the party, the meeting is treated as an attempt to organize the right-wing field in the state and avoid the dispersion of candidacies. The announced composition also closes the possibility of businessman Flávio Rocha joining the PL-supported ticket.
The choice of the Northeast to open the political turn has a strategic interpretation within the campaign. Although the region has historically concentrated strong support for President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Flávio’s allies believe that expanding political presence in the Northeast is a necessary condition to make a competitive presidential candidacy viable.
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In the assessment of PL members, the strategy involves strengthening regional leadership and expanding the party structure in the states, even if the electoral performance of the right in the region is still lower than that recorded in other parts of the country.
The following day, March 22, Flávio will be in João Pessoa to participate in the event that should establish Senator Efraim Filho’s membership in the PL. Currently leader of União Brasil in the Senate, Efraim is expected to migrate to the party after unsuccessfully contesting control of the federation formed between União Brasil and Progressistas in Paraíba.
The affiliation is treated by the PL’s national leadership as a relevant reinforcement in the region and should bring together leaders from the top of the party, including the party president, Valdemar Costa Neto.
In addition to Efraim, allies of the senator from Paraíba are also considering migrating to the PL, a move that could expand the party’s presence in the state and strengthen the political group linked to the parliamentarian.
After the agendas in the Northeast, the senator will head to the South of the country, a region where Bolsonarism traditionally has greater electoral reach. On March 27, Flávio will be in Santa Catarina to fulfill political commitments alongside governor Jorginho Mello (PL), a close ally of the Bolsonaro family.
The agenda in the state should include meetings with political leaders and representatives of the productive sector, in addition to activities aimed at mobilizing the local conservative base. Within the PL, Santa Catarina is treated as one of the main electoral strongholds of the right and a strategic state for the presidential campaign.
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The following day, March 28, the senator participates in Porto Alegre in the launch of the pre-candidacy of federal deputy Luciano Zucco (PL-RS) for the government of Rio Grande do Sul.
The event should bring together state and national leaders of parties that are discussing the formation of a right-wing alliance in the state, including PL, Progressistas, Novo, Podemos and Republicans. The articulation also involves the possibility of launching competitive candidacies for the Senate, with names such as deputies Marcel Van Hattem (Novo) and Sanderson (PL).
The trip to the South is also seen by allies as a way to reinforce the senator’s political presence in an electorate historically more receptive to Bolsonarism and consolidate state platforms aligned with the presidential candidacy.
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The sequence of trips culminates in the event scheduled for March 30th, in São Paulo, considered by those around Flávio as the first major act of his pre-campaign. The meeting is expected to bring together parliamentarians, party leaders, businesspeople and representatives of the financial market.
In addition to presenting initial guidelines for his government plan, allies say that the senator will be able to take advantage of the event to highlight names that should join his economic team in a possible government.
Behind the scenes of the campaign, approaching the financial market is treated as an important stage in the pre-candidacy. Before the public event, the senator must also complete a round of reserved meetings with investors, managers and businesspeople in the capital of São Paulo.
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The idea, according to interlocutors, is to test receptivity to the candidacy and reduce resistance to Flávio’s name among economic agents, in addition to presenting general lines of the economic agenda that should guide the government program.
Within the PL, the assessment is that the combination between the political tour through the states and the national event in São Paulo should mark the transition from the pre-candidacy to a more structured phase of the campaign, with greater definition of regional platforms, consolidation of party alliances and rapprochement with different sectors of society.
