Brazilian companies have mixed feelings about the economy and business. There is optimism regarding economic activity and expectations of a reduction in inflation, while expectations are moderate when it comes to hiring plans and concerns about profitability.
This is data recorded in the “S&P Global Brazil Business Outlook” survey, by the rating agency, which listens to 12 thousand companies in the industry and services sectors about their thoughts regarding the future of business conditions.
“Inflation expectations have decreased for all three price categories monitored by the survey, but the war in the Middle East brings new challenges for the central bank”, comments the associate director of economics at S&P Global Market Intelligence, Pollyanna De Lima.
In February, the index recorded a 30% increase in the net balance of business activity, a slight increase from the 29% observed in October 2025, which indicates an improvement in growth projections for the year. The data was captured between February 4 and 24 and therefore does not capture the beginning of the war in the Middle East.
“Inflation expectations decreased for all three price categories monitored by the survey, but for the central bank”, points out De Lima.
She states that, although domestic energy production capacity protects the country from price rises in relation to oil importers, there is a risk of inflation resulting from the interruption of global supply chains. The scenario should impact the pace and duration of potential interest rate reductions and even delay the first cut.
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Pricing plans were revised downwards, with the aggregate net balance of costs over production in Brazil reducing to a five-year low of around 30%. The net balance of companies forecasting higher profits fell from a figure close to 8% to 7%, the lowest since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic and below the global average of 12%.
Among the 12 countries for which comparable survey data is available, the highest levels of optimism were recorded in India, Ireland, the United Kingdom and the United States. According to the report, optimistic forecasts among Brazilian companies would derive from international partnerships and new product launches, in addition to the World Cup and the gradual implementation of tax reform. These companies also expect lower interest rates and better underlying demand, and they anticipate productivity gains from investments in artificial intelligence.
Hiring plans, however, were revised downward for the third consecutive survey. At around 5%, the net balance of jobs reached the lowest level since June 2020. Evidence collected by S&P indicates that this moderation may be due to high cost pressures in historical comparison, uncertainties about public policies caused by the 2026 elections and a shortage of qualified labor.
