It is sliding into a generalized conflict, the consequences of which transcend the geographical borders of the region, threatening to redefine the international order. As Tehran and Jerusalem trade blows on an unprecedented scale, behind the bellicose rhetoric emerges a complex web of personal ambitions and economic imperatives.
For the two protagonists of the crisis, the war is not only a geopolitical event, but also a crucial mechanism of political management.
Netanyahu’s “political stronghold”.
For the Israeli prime minister, . At a time when Israeli society remains deeply divided, the escalation resolves five critical fronts.
Judicial immunity
The state of emergency shifts the agenda from the courtrooms, where Mr. Netanyahu is facing corruption charges, to the business arena.
Governmental cohesion
The war acts as the ultimate “glue” for a fragile right-wing coalition that, before the crisis, was on the verge of collapse.
Degradation of the Gaza front
With the focus shifting to the “octopus head” in Tehran, the hostages’ families’ pressure for an immediate deal with Hamas is receding from the spotlight.
Restoration of prestige
After the October 7 strategic shock, the targeted strikes against Iranian targets are presented as the practical proof of Israel’s regained deterrence power.
US Involvement and the “Maximum Pressure” Axis
In Washington, Donald Trump appears to be abandoning campaign promises to end “endless wars” by adopting a policy of “absolute deterrence.” The personal chemistry between Trump and Netanyahu has created a narrow axis of decision-making that bypasses traditional diplomatic channels, causing intense concern in Brussels and the UN.
However, this strategy is characterized by many analysts as a “war of options” without a clear exit plan (off-ramp). The risks remain palpable: Iran’s capacity for asymmetric proxy retaliation and the threat to navigation in the Strait of Hormuz add up to an extremely high-risk environment.
The Kushner mission and the background to “peace”
While military operations are in full swing, a parallel, quiet diplomacy is taking place in the background. According to a revealing Axios report, Donald Trump has activated his most trusted aides, Jared Kushner and special envoy Steven Witkoff, to investigate a comprehensive deal with Tehran.
The two men, who played a central role in the “Abraham Accords”, are said to have already begun exploratory contacts through third countries (such as Oman), considering a framework that would include the opening of the Straits of Hormuz and severe restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program. The move reflects Trump’s desire to act as the “ultimate dealmaker”, seeking a victory that combines military might with diplomatic success.
The “dictatorship” of the pump
Despite military resolve, the reality of markets is beginning to impose its own rules. With the average US gas price above $6 a gallon, Mr Trump faces the specter of inflation threatening his political base.
His recent posts on Truth Social, where he combines threats with readiness for a “grand deal,” reveal a shift toward diplomatic pursuit. Washington has reportedly already scouted mediators in Oman and Switzerland, looking for a formula that would allow it to “declare victory” without suffering further economic bleeding.
Between power and impasse
The dilemma for the two leaders is common. For Netanyahu, the war is his political refuge; for Trump, it is a battle between the image of a strong leader and the need to protect the American economy. As operations continue, the question remains: is this a strategic realignment of the Middle East or an escalation of no return? In any case, the outcome of this conflict will determine not only the map of the region, but also the personal political fate of the two men.
In any case, the outcome of this conflict will determine not only the map of the region, but also the personal political fate of the two men. History will show whether the “way out” sought will be found on the battlefields or in the secret offices of the negotiators.
