However, this approach also has some fundamental differences. While the regime ruled in Venezuela for a little over two decades and the opposition kept at least a minimal space for public action, the Cuban revolution has been going on for 67 years. There is no legal political alternative to the ruling power in Cuba.
Moreover, Trump’s goal is (unsurprisingly for many) pragmatic. While Marco Rubio, the son of Cuban immigrants and secretary of state, insists on deep structural reforms and breaking up the all-powerful military conglomerate GAESA, Trump is once again primarily interested in trade. Currently, the basic demand of the USA is the departure of the current president, Miguel Díaz-Canel. The administration believes that removing this formal leader will open the door to corporate America.
Gray Eminence Castro
Ironically, while Díaz-Canel is a kind of scapegoat, the main negotiator on the Cuban side is Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, the grandson of 94-year-old Raúl Castro, for whom he once acted as a bodyguard. Raúl Castro is a key figure in modern Cuban history and the younger brother of the more famous Fidel Castro, with whom he led the Cuban Revolution in 1959.
When Fidel’s health began to fail, Raúl even took over the leadership of the country. First temporarily in 2006, and then officially as president. He was also the first secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba until 2021, which is the absolute most powerful post in a one-party government system.
Washington does not seem to mind the Castro family pulling the strings in the background as long as the new formal leader allows the island to be opened to American capital. Thus, another parallel appears again with Venezuela, where, despite the existence of a strong opposition, persons close to former President Maduro remained in power.
Where does the tipping point occur?
Under pressure, the regime made unprecedented concessions. The government allowed private companies to import fuel for the first time and even announced in mid-March that Cuban exiles would be allowed to own businesses and invest in infrastructure on the island. It also allowed the release of a small part of more than a thousand political prisoners. But to ordinary Cubans, as well as to the hard-core exiles in Florida, it looks like just a desperate attempt by the regime to save its own skin. Meanwhile, according to them, real democracy remains off the negotiating table.
So what is the chance of real change? The actors themselves are not expecting a spectacular coup with tanks in the streets right on the island. The change, if it comes at all, will be more of an institutional nature.
“The most likely breaking point will be institutional,” believes the dissident Manuel. “The regime will fall at the moment when the political costs of maintaining power exceed the benefits that the elites get from it. The street expresses a ‘moral limit’ – it shows that the people have had enough.” However, the split in the apparatus, between officials and technicians, represents an “operational limit”. Sustainable change occurs when these two factors come together,” he explains.
At the same time, Manuel warns against agreements “from above” that would only ensure impunity for the regime in exchange for access to American capital. “If such an agreement brings real rights, freedom of information and the separation of powers, it is a functional way to avoid chaos. But if it is only a change of rhetoric with an effort to maintain power, it is only a deferred betrayal. The compass must be institutions and rights. Without them, any pragmatism is just a cosmetic adjustment of totality,” he adds.
Let’s put up with it
Today, Cuba stands at a fateful crossroads. On the one hand, there is a devastated economy, whose income from abroad has fallen to a ridiculous nine billion dollars in 2025, a fraction compared to other states in the region. Even the lucrative export of medical workers abroad collapsed after the US forced 15 countries to cancel these missions.
On the other side is the American vision of “liberation”, which in Trump’s understanding can mean colonization evoking economic expansion rather than building solid democratic institutions. Looking at the current events not only in Venezuela, but also in Iran, it would not be a surprise.
The question remains whether Cubans, exhausted by decades of lack of goods and empty ideological phrases, will at least have a full stomach and switched on electricity. As one resident of Havana said: “We are so bad that if Trump comes and takes over Varadero, as long as I can provide for my family, I will put up with it.”
The elite of the Communist Party is about time and impunity. Trump administration for triumph and new markets. And for 8.6 million Cubans, it is mainly about survival and the hope that after 67 years they will get a chance to decide their own fate.
