Members of the opposition celebrated the decision of the (Supreme Federal Court) to send the former president () to house arrest, but they fear the consequences that this could bring to the senator’s campaign for the Presidency of the Republic.
Leaders from the center and the right assess that, at home, Bolsonaro will be better able to engage in political articulation —despite having limited visits— as he is more comfortable and can talk daily with his son, who has become his lawyer.
On the other hand, there is concern that the former president will increase his interference in Flávio’s campaign — and his influence over his son — and end up making it difficult to form agreements signaled by the senator. Members of right-wing parties also fear that Bolsonaro will go too far in political conversations and make allegations so that Moraes decides to reinstate his arrest.
Bolsonaro at DF Star, in Brasília, with bronchopneumonia. The forecast is for next Friday (27). He has a long history, which began in 2018, when he was the target of a knife attack. The situation led Moraes to grant house arrest this Tuesday (24), for an initial period of 90 days.
The decision will allow Bolsonaro, after being discharged from hospital, not to return to Papudinha, where he was serving a sentence of 27 years and three months in prison. He by the STF for an attempted coup d’état, under accusations of leading a plot to remain in power. Allies pressured Moraes to grant house arrest, proclaiming the risk to the former president’s life.
The assessment in the center is that, at home, Bolsonaro could be better informed about the progress of this year’s elections. This group also understands that it resides in the clan. Only the former first lady and doctors will have unrestricted access to the former president.
Flávio, by positioning himself as Jair’s lawyer, will be able to visit his father daily, but only during business hours, from Monday to Friday. He needs to schedule meetings in advance, which can last a maximum of 30 minutes. On Saturdays, as a son, he can also meet Bolsonaro.
At the same time, allies fear unmeasured intervention by Bolsonaro in the campaign areas. The first practical repercussion would be the risk of Moraes sending the former president back to the closed regime, alleging non-compliance with restrictive measures.
“Bolsonaro is prohibited from using a cell phone, telephone or any other means of external communication, directly or indirectly, through third parties. Failure to comply with the rules will result in the revocation of house arrest and return to the closed regime or, if necessary, to the penitentiary hospital”, informed the STF about Moraes’ decision.
The second fear is that Bolsonaro will try to act politically under the strong influence of Michelle, at a time when Flávio has consolidated himself as a right-wing candidate, building agreements in the states. The former first lady was seen as an alternative vice-president on a ticket with the governor (Republicanos-SP) running for President, but the senator was chosen by Bolsonaro to run for Planalto.
The choice frustrated Michelle, who was left in the dark in the process that culminated in the announcement of Flávio as a candidate for President. The former first lady, however, took on a crucial role in appealing to Moraes for Bolsonaro’s domicile, and will now have unique access to the former president.
Michelle’s allies recognize that she emerged stronger from this process, as she demonstrated conciliation skills with the STF, one of Bolsonaro’s main targets during his government. More than that, they believe that she demonstrated dialogue skills that go beyond Flávio’s ability.
According to these allies, the former first lady will be careful not to gain more apathy from people close to Bolsonaro who also want to compete for influence over the former president.
The suggestion is that Michelle shares the merit of the domicile with the joint effort of parliamentarians, who pressured the STF for the decision, and also with the delicate moment experienced by the court, which was weakened in the face of the Banco Master scandals.
Among the president’s allies (PT), the assessment is that the 90-day deadline given by Moraes is strategic to monitor whether Bolsonaro will break the house rules to campaign. PT members with traffic in Planalto say that the decision does not hinder the re-election campaign.
