Iran announced this Friday that it will remain “totally open” until the end of the ceasefire with the United States, in force until next Wednesday and pending an extension depending on the progress of the negotiations for the end of the war launched almost two months ago with Israel. President Donald Trump did not rule out the day before that the second round of these talks would arrive this weekend, after the failure of the first.
The Government of the Islamic Republic justified the decision to open one of the key sea lanes for the global supply of hydrocarbons in , which Trump forced on Israel (and announced) on Thursday. The Iranian decision caused an immediate drop in the price of oil and strong relief in the markets. The US naval blockade against Iranian ports will continue, however, as the tenant of the White House warned this Friday on his social network, Truth.
“In line with the ceasefire in Lebanon, the passage of all merchant ships through the Strait of Hormuz is declared fully open for the remainder of the ceasefire period, following the coordinated route already announced by the Port and Maritime Organization of the Islamic Republic of Iran,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.
The route referred to by the head of Iranian diplomacy is actually the sum of the entry and exit channels to the Persian Gulf through the Iranian territorial waters of the Strait of Hormuz. They pass by the islands of Larak and Qeshm and avoid the area of Omani territorial waters where the Iranian Revolutionary Guard stated that “the presence of naval mines is feasible.” It is not entirely clear where or how many mines Tehran has placed, but that mere possibility is enough to set off all the alarms in the shipping sector: a medium-large Suezmax-type oil tanker loaded with one million barrels of crude oil has a value of about 150 million euros.
The truth is that this route has already been used in recent weeks by both ships from Iran and other countries, presumably in exchange for high tolls, which are expected to stop being collected after this Friday’s announcement. Even so, Iranian state television cited senior military officials who assured that the Revolutionary Guard will continue to monitor the passage of ships, which will require their permission, which, if confirmed, would be an obstacle to navigation (although the waters of the strait are Omani and Iranian, its transit for commercial ships is free, in the same way that occurs in other international maritime straits such as Gibraltar).
So, like everything in this war, which is also fought through tweets, the details are not entirely clear. For this reason, the secretary general of the International Maritime Organization, Arsenio Domínguez, explained that his institution is “verifying” the Iranian announcement “with regard to its compliance with freedom of navigation for all merchant ships” and “safe passage” according to the regulations of this UN agency.
MAP OF THE DAY: Overnight, Iranian media have announced two alternative routes for he Strait of Hormuz to avoid “the presence of various types of anti-ship mines in the main traffic zone.”
The new Traffic Separation Scheme runs north of the old ones, and into Iranian waters.
— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas)
Shortly after post of Araghchi, Trump celebrated the decision in Truth as a personal triumph. A first message, all in capital letters, was then followed by a cascade of a dozen announcements that added information with that chaotic cadence to which the Republican has accustomed the world. He first warned that the US blockade of Hormuz on ships originating from or destined for Iranian ports, ordered by himself after the failure in Islamabad (Pakistan), remains “in full force.” And so it will be, he added, until the peace agreement, which he called the “transaction”—with language more typical of the real estate developer that he was than the leader of the leading world power that he is—is not “100% completed.”
Trump also wrote that the issue should be resolved “very quickly,” because — he said, without giving further details — most of the points of disagreement that separate the two countries “have already been negotiated.” In addition to ensuring on Thursday that talks with Iran could resume this weekend, the US president also warned that in order to close the deal, although the logistics of something like this are, at the very least, uncertain.
In his following messages in Truth, Trump announced that he plans to keep the enriched uranium (“nuclear dust,” he calls it) that was buried deep underground after the US attacks last June; He forbade Israel from bombing Lebanon again (“Enough is enough!!!” he wrote); attacked his NATO allies; thanked Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar for their “help and bravery,” as well as their mediation efforts with Pakistan; and said—again, without evidence—that the United States had “removed or was removing” all Iranian mines from Hormuz and that Tehran will never again block the strait.
The climax came with another message in capital letters. It said: “[Hoy es] A BRILLIANT GREAT DAY FOR THE WORLD! “And in the midst of all that, he picked up the phone to at least three journalists, to whom he gave brief and disconnected statements, in what has now become a custom in Washington, as well as another tool within the reach of the president of the United States to flood the news with his messages. Among other things, he stated that he had spoken with Iran and that he had their promise that they will not “enrich uranium” again.
Congestion in the Gulf
The US naval encirclement is quite far from Hormuz, in the eastern part of the Gulf of Oman that leads to the Indian Ocean and represents a line of about 300 kilometers from north to south patrolled by a dozen military ships with abundant air support. Although on Thursday the US Chief of Staff, Dan Caine, warned that his forces will board ships that trade with Iran or that violate navigation regulations ——, for the moment there have been no incidents and US activity has been limited to pressuring ships to turn around.
“The destroyer USS Rafael Peralta“, equipped with guided missiles, instructs a merchant ship to return to an Iranian port in compliance with the US blockade,” the Central Command of the US Armed Forces published this Friday on the social network The blockade is in force and that none have violated it. However, the ship tracking company TankerTrackers assures that several ships have managed to bypass the US blockade.
As you can clearly see in this 3 day long AIS playback since the blockade line was drawn between the eastern horn of Oman and the Iran-Pakistan border, a lot of the tankers which have been placed under US sanctions have been entering and departing the scene with ease.
— TankerTrackers.com, Inc. (@TankerTrackers)
European countries have welcomed, although with some caution, the Iranian announcement. The President of France, Emmanuel Macron, has stated that the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz “is encouraging”, although we must continue to “be cautious”. The French president chaired, together with the prime ministers of the United Kingdom, Keir Starmer, and Italy, Georgia Meloni, a video conference in Paris with the countries willing to form a multinational force of “non-belligerent countries” to guarantee security in the strait. Macron defended that this alliance will not accept “the privatization” of Hormuz and announced that another summit will be held next week in London to continue specifying the details of the mission.
almost 10% within minutes of the Iranian announcement. It is understandable since the month and a half of conflict in an area through which 20% of the world’s hydrocarbons reach the markets had caused fear of a fuel shortage, with several States mobilizing their strategic reserves. In fact, Financial Times published on Thursday that the last oil tankers to leave the Persian Gulf before the war are now arriving at destinations such as the United States, Denmark or Morocco.
All in all, experts believe that shipping flow through Hormuz will take time to normalize, as shipping companies and insurers have no appetite to risk their ships or crews. There is also a serious congestion problem. In the Persian Gulf there are a minimum of 823 ships trapped, according to data from the maritime intelligence company Windward, while the UN estimates a figure that is more than double, also taking into account those that have remained in the Gulf of Oman waiting to cross Hormuz or leave for the Indian Ocean. Before the war, the usual traffic in the strait was just over a hundred ships in both directions each day, but since the start of the war and the Iranian blockade it has been reduced to around a dozen, so reducing the traffic jam in the area will take weeks.
