The fiscal impact of the measures to contain the rise in oil prices already totals almost R$35 billion until the month of August. The scenario raises an alert for public accounts, as the loss of revenue and subsidies put pressure on meeting fiscal targets.
Felipe Salto, chief economist at Warren Investimentos, explains that this value only considers measures that are already a reality, basically those announced for diesel. .
According to Salto, the government is trying to take advantage of the increase in oil prices, which will offset the cost of these measures on a monthly basis.
“The strategy is as follows: in addition to the costs that have already been assumed with the other actions, the government wants to take advantage of this rise in oil prices to be able to grant these exemptions from PIS, Pasep and Cofins and also from the CID for gasoline and ethanol”, he stated.
Tax risks and dangerous precedents
The economist warns of the risks of this strategy. “There is a risk, obviously, in this strategy, because even if it is restricted to 2026 and the effects of the war in the Middle East, you set a precedent”, ponders Salto
He explains that the bill sent by the government to Congress seeks to restrict this mechanism to 2026.
Salto highlights that.
“This extraordinary gain from oil should serve the government to achieve a better result. And not to ruin everything with measures to try to promote effects on fuel prices”, he criticizes.
Another point highlighted by the economist is the risk of emergency measures becoming permanent.
“You open Pandora’s box, then no one can put the contents back in again”, he warns, although he recognizes that the current situation is exceptional, with .
Lack of budget planning
For Salto, the episode reveals the lack of planning in the federal public sphere.
“As we always operate on a knife’s edge, not only this government, but the others before it as well, you simply have no budgetary space and also no instruments, mechanisms to act in these exceptional moments”, he explains.
The economist suggests that the problem could be corrected with a more reliable budget law and a more transparent budget process, in addition to adapting mandatory expenses so that there is discretion for exceptional moments.
Regarding what to do at the current moment, Salto states that it is necessary to “put out the fire” and praises the concern of the Ministers of Finance and Planning with fiscal neutrality.
For the future, he suggests rethinking , but recognizes that this should only happen after the elections.
