The new round of the Genial/Quaest survey, released last week, highlights the challenge faced by governors — both those seeking re-election and those who want to make a successor. Of the ten states measured, the result proves to be challenging for the continuity of management in at least eight: Rio, Minas, Pernambuco, Bahia, Paraná, Rio Grande do Sul, Pará and Ceará. The exceptions are São Paulo, which has Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans) in comfortable leadership, and Goiás, where the vice of former governor Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) leads in all scenarios.
Experts interviewed by GLOBO consider that little-known leaders associated with governors tend to gain prominence with the start of the campaign, but point out that the automatic transfer of support has been losing strength in the most recent elections.
In Minas, where Romeu Zema (Novo) left the Palácio da Liberdade to run for President of the Republic, it is difficult for him to leverage his successor, the now governor Mateus Simões (PSD), who seeks to gain visibility after serving an almost complete term as vice president. The survey shows Simões, numerically, in fourth place, with 4% of voting intentions.
The survey shows a politician in the lead in all first and second round scenarios who has not even decided whether he will be a candidate: Senator Cleitinho (Republicans). He is followed by the former mayor of Belo Horizonte Alexandre Kalil (PDT), by senator Rodrigo Pacheco (PSB) and by Ben Mendes (Missão) — the latter numerically tied with Simões.
The governor of Paraná, Ratinho Junior (PSD), who was considered as the name of his party to try for Planalto, but chose to complete his term to support his successor, faces a similar scenario. His supporter and former Secretary of Infrastructure Sandro Alex appears in fourth place in the first round scenarios, varying between 5% and 6% — behind senator Sergio Moro (PL), who is in the lead, state deputy Requião Filho (PDT) and former mayor of Curitiba Rafael Greca (MDB).
Volatile voter
Another governor who was on the PSD list as a presidential option, Eduardo Leite (PSD) supports vice Gabriel Souza (MDB), who appears with just 6% of voting intentions in Rio Grande do Sul in the first round. He is behind former deputy Juliana Brizola (PDT), with 24%, and federal deputy Luciano Zucco (PL).
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Political scientist at UnB, Murilo Medeiros points out that government candidates tend to grow during the campaign, when the structure of the machine, the strength of alliances and greater public exposure come into play. Medeiros emphasizes, however, that “transforming government support into an electoral asset is not guaranteed”:
— Today we have a much more volatile electorate and less faithful to political godfathers. Voting is more individualized. Ratinho Junior and Eduardo Leite, for example, despite remaining at the head of state governments, were still unable to boost their successors. These are cases of leaders who inherit the machine, but not necessarily the political capital of the governors.
The situation is also unfavorable for the president of the Legislative Assembly of Rio de Janeiro (Alerj), Douglas Ruas, chosen by the PL to compete to succeed former governor Cláudio Castro (PL). Amid the power vacancy in the state, which is currently governed on an interim basis by Ricardo Couto, president of the Court of Justice, the former mayor of Rio Eduardo Paes (PSD) emerges as the favorite.
In the three scenarios tested for the first round in Rio, Paes has 34% to 40% of voting intentions, while Ruas has between 9% and 11%. The second round simulation shows the former mayor with 49%, against 16% for the Bolsonarist.
In Pará, the research shows a divided scenario. The former mayor of Ananindeua Dr. Daniel Santos (Podemos) scores between 22% and 24% in the first round scenarios. Governor Hana Ghassan (MDB), who took office after Helder Barbalho (MDB) left the post to run for the Senate, appears technically tied, varying between 19% and 22%. Santos maintains the numerical advantage in the second round scenario (34% against 29%).
Challenge for re-election
Winning re-election also proves to be a challenge in the Northeast. The governor of Pernambuco, Raquel Lyra (PSD), is behind the former mayor of Recife João Campos (PSB). President Lula’s ally appears with 42% of voting intentions in the first round scenario, while the current occupant of the Palácio do Campo das Princesas reaches 34%. The son of former governor Eduardo Campos also leads in the second round (46% against 38%).
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In Bahia, governor Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) appears numerically behind the former mayor of Salvador ACM Neto (União), considering the margin of error — 41% against 37% in the first round. When considering the simulation of the second round, the representative of Carlism appears with 41% of voting intentions, and the PT member has 38%.
A similar situation occurs in Ceará, where the opposition has an advantage against the current governor Elmano de Freitas (PT). The PT member scores 32% in the first round simulation, against 41% for former minister Ciro Gomes (PSDB), who also leads in a possible second round (46% against 35%).
Political scientist Antônio Lavareda assesses that the scenarios, which have so far been unfavorable for governors seeking re-election or allies, are the result of the rivals’ “political CV”.
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— Historically, former capital mayors are part of a category that tends to elect a good number of governors. This has an impact on the dispute between Pernambuco and Bahia. In the case of Ceará, the governor appears behind a candidate who was once mayor of Fortaleza, governor and minister. A name with consolidated prestige in the state — he says.
In the opposite direction, the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas, appears in a leadership position. He scores between 38% and 40% of voting intentions in the first round scenarios, against the 26% to 28% achieved by former Finance Minister Fernando Haddad (PT). The distance grows in the second round simulation: 49% against 32%.
And in Goiás, governor Daniel Vilela (MDB), who took over the position after Ronaldo Caiado left the post to run for President, is the leader in the race. Vilela appears with 33% to 34% of voting intentions in the first round scenarios, followed by Marconi Perillo (PSDB), former governor, who scores 21%. The advantage is even greater in a possible direct clash in the second round: 46% against 27%.
