The president () maintained his advantage and scored 41% in the most likely first round scenario compared to 31% for (). The new survey released this Saturday (20) shows that the senator has stopped for now the electoral damage caused by the “” case.
In the interview, made after , to finance a film about (PL), Lula scored 40% while the senator had the same 31%. The margin of error is plus or minus two percentage points.
The situation of stability also defines the hypothetical second round between Lula and Flávio, in which both, 47% for the PT member and 43% for the Bolsonarist. This time, blanks and nulls total 8%, and 1% don’t know.
Since then, the Master scandal reached the top of the PT and became a shared problem between Lula and Flávio. The new survey, however, only partially captures this effect, as it was carried out on Wednesday (17) and Thursday (18), the day of the Federal Police operation that targeted (PT-BA), the government leader in the Senate.
Datafolha heard 2,004 interviewees in 139 cities. The survey is registered with the (Superior Electoral Court) with number BR-09956/2026.
Lula and Flávio lead the first round alone, which had news such as the entry of , which the PSDB is considering launching for the Presidency, and the DC.
After Lula with 41% and Flávio with 31%, there are () with 3%, (Missão) with 3%, (Novo) with 2%, Aécio Neves (PSDB) with 2%, Samara Martins (UP) with 2%, Augusto Cury (Avante) with 2%, Joaquim Barbosa (DC) with 1%, Cabo Daciolo (Mobiliza) with 1% and Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO) with 1%.
Hertz Dias (PSTU) and Edmilson Costa (PCB) did not score. Whites and nulls total 7%, and 4% responded that they did not know who to vote for.
The “Dark Horse” case (name of the film, which means underdog) represented a blow for Flávio, who in the second round simulation and, after the scandal, saw the difference reach four points. In the first stage, the president’s three-point advantage increased to nine.
If the current stability, therefore, is good news for Flávio, the same cannot be said about Lula, who still hopes to capitalize on his voters in credits and subsidies.
This is the first Datafolha survey since , one of the Lula government’s main bets to expand the PT’s points. However, the measure was blocked in the Senate.
Datafolha tested two other second round possibilities. When the dispute is between Lula and Caiado, the PT member has 47% against 41% for the former governor of Goiás. Whites and nulls are 10%, and 2% don’t know. The difference of six points between the pre-candidates fluctuated in relation to the last survey, when it was nine points (48% to 39%).
Between Lula and Zema, the score is 48% for the president compared to 39% for the former governor of Minas Gerais, the same difference as in the previous survey, with 11% blank and null and 2% who don’t know.
The spontaneous survey, when the voter does not see the list of options, also confirms Flávio’s position as the main anti-Lula candidate. The president leads, with 30%, followed by the senator, with 17%. Caiado, Zema and Renan have 1% each.
Lula and Flávio are technically tied, within the margin of error, when the question is which candidate the interviewee would not vote for at all. The Bolsonarist is numerically ahead in terms of rejection, with 48%, followed by the PT member with 46%. Aécio comes in third place, with 23%. There are 17% who would not vote for Zema and 14% who rule out Caiado.
Less than two months before the start of the campaign, Lula and Flávio have been fighting duels in. After a meeting with Donald Trump, the senator managed to have criminal factions considered terrorists by the US and launched a series of hard-line promises to
In return, the president demanded the presence of ministers at construction inaugurations across the country. The government officials fear that the operation against Jaques Wagner, a friend of Lula, will occur, but they are already investing in another front of attacks on Flávio, for aligning himself with the USA amid the threat of more tariffs.
The preferences of each voter profile, reinforced with each survey, are already well known by the campaigns, but they are not easy to reverse. Flávio, for example, to improve his image in the segment in which he scores 37% compared to Lula’s 52% in a possible second round.
Among housewives, Lula has 56% and Flávio, 38%. The same disparity is seen among students — the PT member scores 55% and the Bolsonarist, 38%. In the world of businesspeople, the senator leads with 69% and the president scores 25%.
Lula has more support among the poorest, least educated, black, homosexual and bisexual people and reaches 61% in the Northeast. Flávio performs better among the richest, evangelicals, whites and reaches 54% in the South.
Datafolha also asked whether voters regret the vote given in 2022, when Lula beat Bolsonaro by 50.9% to 49.1%. The responses remained stable. Among those who voted for the current president, 91% do not regret it and 9% regret it. For the former president, the rates are 93% and 7%, respectively.
Electoral survey data should not be understood as predictions for the final outcome of the elections. They serve as a thermometer for voter opinion at the time the survey is carried out.
