The impact of high interest rates caused the sector to revise its growth projection for 2025 downwards. According to data released this Monday (27), the sector is expected to close the year with a growth rate of 1.3% – previously, the forecast was 2.3%.
According to Ieda Vasconcelos, the entity’s chief economist, the high Selic interest rate, currently at 15%, has limited the sector’s growth.
The data shows that the sector’s GDP fell by 0.6% in the first quarter and 0.2% in the second quarter, compared to the immediately previous periods.
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Comparing quarters, construction GDP grew 1.8% in the second quarter of 2025, compared to the same period last year. This percentage had been 3.4% in the first quarter and 4.3% in the fourth quarter of 2024. According to CBIC, the sector operates 23% above the level recorded before the pandemic, at the end of 2019.
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| Civil construction GDP | |
| Period | Growth (%) |
| 2nd quarter/2025 | 1,8 |
| 1st quarter/2025 | 3,4 |
| 4th quarter/2024 | 4,3 |
| 3rd quarter/2024 | 4,1 |
| 2nd quarter/2024 | 3,2 |
| 1st quarter/2024 | 2,1 |
CBIC data show that the sector’s activity level averaged 47.2 points, the lowest level of activity since 2020, when it reached 42.8 points. According to the entity, difficulties in accessing credit explain the slower pace of activity in the sector.
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Units financed with savings resources fell by 20.32% in the period from January to August this year, compared to the same period of the previous year.
From January to August 2025, 283,360 units were financed, compared to 355,621 in the same period in 2024.
In values, the drop was 18%. R$97.1 million were financed between January and August 2025, compared to R$118.4 million in the same period in 2024.
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Changes to financing rules
For 2026, the prospect is to recover part of the sector’s activity, as changes in the rules for real estate financing using savings resources are expected to inject R$37 billion into housing credit next year.
Furthermore, there is a prospect of a fall in the Selic rate, which could improve interest rates on financing.
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Another positive fact on the horizon is the prospect of a trade agreement between Brazil and the United States regarding import tariffs. According to Vasconcelos, the impact of the agreement will be indirect for the sector, through the strengthening of the industry and the economy in general.
