And dissuasive message which, in light of the events of this Saturday, has not had the desired effect. A week and a half ago, Hasan Maqsudlu, spokesman and vice admiral of the Navy of Iranannounced the celebration of joint naval maneuvers with military ships Russia east of the strategic Strait of Hormuzspecifically in the Gulf of Oman and the northern Indian Ocean, with the stated objective of “improving” the maritime safety in the area and strengthen mutual cooperation in the fight against what they described as “maritime terrorism“. Although at no time did the military representatives of both countries made reference to the growing US maritime deployment in the area, many analysts highlighted the coincidence of said military exercises with the tension escalation between Washington, Tel Aviv and Tehran.
These joint maneuvers, which have sometimes included ships from China and other countries in the BRICS framework, cannot hide a disturbing reality for the ayatollah regime: the scarcity of allies and external support. After the fall of Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela and Bashar al-Assad in Syria, and the weakening of the so-called ‘Axis of Resistance’ in the Middle East – the constellation of paramilitary militias that sympathize with Iran, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Palestine, the Shiite Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq or the Houthis in Yemen – Tehran’s possibilities of triggering a conflict on a large scale hitting military installations and economic interests of the US and Israel, both in the Middle East and throughout the planet, have been severely limited. To this, we must add the lack of reliability of Russia as an ally, demonstrated in recent events, and China’s reluctance to get involved militarily in the conflict, leaving Iran effectively without external allies.
Until recently, the ‘Axis of Resistance’ constituted an important headache for the US and Israel in the Middle East region. From Lebanon to Yemen, passing through Iraq and Gaza, the Iranian State had financed and armed a plethora of militias and combatants, capable of organizing attacks or firing missiles from a distance, not only “to project power, but also as a formula of deterrence against its main adversaries, the United States and Israel,” writes the expert Arman Mahmudian, senior researcher at the Global and National Security Institute at the University of South Florida.
But the evolution of events After the Hamas attacks in southern Israel on October 7, 2023, its strength has significantly decreased. “Hamas has lost tens of thousands of soldiers (in the fight with Israel) and its senior leadership” while “Hezbollah has suffered similar blows in the fall of 2024” at the hands of Israel, damaging the popularity of the former among Gazans and the influence of the latter in daily Lebanese political life, writes Noah Rudin, a researcher at the Middle East Institute in Washington. The fall of the pro-Iranian regime of Bashar al-Assad has done the rest, by depriving the bases of Hezbollah in southern Lebanon with the Iranian State. This weakness was starkly exposed during the wave of attacks against the iranian nuclear program last June, when Hezbollah, “once the vanguard of Iranian defense, had to contemplate attacks on the margins,” Rudin concludes.
Military cooperation with Moscow
The recently launched military cooperation between Iran and Russia, materialized in a signed agreement in January 2025, hardly differs from what was established in its day with the Venezuelan regime, a circumstance that did not prevent the arrest of the president Nicolas Maduro last January. With a duration of 20 years, it includes a clause to “counteract the unilateral application of coercive measures”, a euphemism to mention attacks and armed interventions like the one this Saturday. But, as the Deputy Foreign Minister clarified at the time, Andrey Rudenkoin a statement to the State Duma, “the signing of the treaty does not mean the establishment of a military alliance with Iran or mutual military assistance.” The deployment of the Stoikiy corvette in the port of Bandar Abbas during the recent naval exercises constitutes no deterrence for Washington, with the aircraft carriers USS Abraham Lincoln y USS Gerald Fordand its group of support ships, in the area.
Yes indeed. Cooperation will bring huge benefits to Russian arms companies. In December 2025, both countries closed a secret contract worth about 500 million euros for Tehran’s acquisition of 500 Verba portable launchers and 2,500 9M336 missiles, according to the ‘Financial Times’, boosting its ability to defend itself against low-altitude air raids such as those that led to the arrest of the former Venezuelan president.
China has also expressed reluctance to become militarily involved in aiding Iran, and is highly unlikely to “dispatch troops or enter into direct conflict” with Tehran’s antagonists, the analyst writes in ‘Middle East Eye’. Nelson Wangvice president of the Shanghai Center for RIMPAC and Strategic Studies. But, as with Russia, military cooperation is increasing, with the recent sale of anti-aircraft batteries of Chinese manufacture, and the possibility of new shipments, this time of more sophisticated material, such as supersonic cruise missiles capable of sinking marine vessels. What Tehran will be able to count on, Wang maintains, is China’s diplomatic support in the international institutions, particularly in the UN Security Council.
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