Survey indicates minister ahead in most scenarios; with Haddad included, PT member leads voting intentions
The research published this Monday (March 9, 2026) indicates leadership from the Minister of Planning and Budget, (MDB), in most of the scenarios tested. When the Minister of Finance, (PT), is included in the simulations, he starts to lead voting intentions. Here is the research (PDF – 13 MB).
The survey was carried out on March 6 and 7, 2026, with 2,000 interviews throughout the State of São Paulo. The margin of error is 2 percentage points, plus or minus, and the confidence level is 95%.
As the Senate election allows each voter to choose 2 candidates, the consolidated results of the survey consider the proportional average between the 1st and 2nd vote. In scenarios 1 to 6, in which Haddad does not appear as a candidate, Tebet leads voting intentions and varies from 16% to 22%. In this group, the Minister of Environment and Climate Change, (Rede), registers 15% to 19%, while the Secretary of Public Security of São Paulo, (PP), appears with 15% to 18%.
In simulations, Tebet appears slightly ahead in most projections, while Marina and Derrite compete for the next positions. The former Minister of the Environment (Novo) appears behind the main trio, with 12% to 14% of voting intentions. The former governor (no party) has 11% to 13%, and the (PL) has around 11%.
Scenario with Haddad
When Haddad is included in the dispute, he starts to lead the consolidated scenario, with around 22% to 24% of voting intentions. In this case, Tebet drops to around 16%, while Marina Silva and Guilherme Derrite appear in the 15% range.
Ricardo Salles registers 12% to 14%, and Rodrigo Garcia appears with 11% to 13%. Colonel Mello Araújo has around 11% of voting intentions.
Indecision in the 2nd vote
The survey shows greater uncertainty among voters regarding the second vote for the Senate. While 1% of those interviewed say they do not know who to vote for in the 1st vote, the percentage rises to 22% in the 2nd vote.
Between blanks and nulls, the rate goes from 2% in the first vote to 11% in the second. Taken together, the data indicates that more than 30% of the electorate has not yet decided on their second choice, keeping the dispute for the 2nd place open.
Profile of interviewees
Among those interviewed, 53% were women and 47% men. In relation to education, 50% have completed secondary education, 26% higher education and 24% up to primary education.
The majority (39%) declared rent between 2 and 5 minimum wages. Regarding age, 47% are aged 35 to 59, 29% are aged 60 or over and 24% are aged 16 to 34.
