An analysis managed by the Ministry of Defense predicted the current war situation in Iran and analyzed its consequences for global security. The report also considers two disturbing scenarios: terrorist campaigns and a definitive strategic inclination of the Iranian regime for the arma nuclear.
This is a key work published by the Higher Center for National Defense Studies (FROM THE BODY) a year ago, and whose reading has become necessary today for senior State officials with tasks affected by the war.
The author is the industrial engineer, expert in the energy market – linked to the Institute for Energy Diversification and Savings (IDAE) – and terrorism and defense analyst David Poza Cano. No positive forecast for after the war can be drawn from his study.
Iran’s assets
“All of Iran’s strategic thinking revolves around the main objective of guaranteeing the survival of the regime and its own stability,” the author states as a starting point in “The Strategic Thought of the Islamic Republic of Iran,” a study that was updated January 13, 2025 for publication by CESEDEN.
Reading this work provides a core description of the strategy that the Iranian regime was using to date to try to deter its adversaries in the Middle East: a military doctrine implemented “in a reactive and opportunistic manner.” Given that Tehran will not be able to win an open war against its enemies due to the determined support of the United StatesUntil now, it had been opting for asymmetric and proxy war, supporting Shiite militias in key points near Israel, Arabia and the emirates of the Persian Gulf.
The report published by CESEDEN describes four legs of Iran’s defense strategy. The first, “a network of associated groups”, the “Resistance axis”, that is, the set of militias, terrorist groups and allies that Tehran finances and supports, such as the Houthis in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza. The second is “a ballistic missile and drone manufacturing program which provides you with a quick means of response.”
Although the first and second tricks are still valid, they have been greatly affected by the current continued air attacks by the United States and Israel, the Israeli offensive in Lebanon and the selective assassinations of leaders of these groups.
This leaves more room for consideration third strategic leg, “a nuclear program”and the fourth: “An international external network that, through hitmen or terrorist groups, can carry out attacks against adversaries or opponents of the regime anywhere in the world.”
Rethink the strategy
From reading this study with a military perspective, the recommendation, in January of a year ago, is extracted not to incur in an open war in the region that would lead (as it is leading) to the leadership of the regime to change your old strategy for a new unpredictable onebut surely asymmetric and nuclear.
“Iran’s use of and support for Axis Resistance groups, intended to minimize the risk of being drawn into a direct military conflict, has ultimately led to a direct military confrontation with Israel: everything they planned to happen has not happened; everything what they didn’t want to happen is happening”says the analysis.
The attacks by the United States and Israel have caught the leadership of the Islamist dictatorship rethinking their strategy, after the almost total interception of missiles launched by Tehranon Israel in the first phase of the war, with the “iron dome”, and the success of the raids Israeli response aircraft.
The report maintains that the war has caught Iran in bad shape: “Its economy is in more serious difficulties, its leaders are older and its advanced defense deterrence strategy largely rendered useless by israel attacks against Hamas and Hezbollah and the country’s missile production facilities.”
Prophecy
In this situation, he bets: “Despite the undeniable military superiority of the US or Israel, historical experience indicates that it is unlikely that military actions alone can be successful in eradicating the organizations and regimes that belong to the Axis of Resistance”.
This CESEDEN analyst maintained a year ago that “the Israeli strategy of total war will surely continue to produce short-term tactical victories that degrade the capabilities of Iran-associated groups and militiasforcing them into a sort of survival mode for a while.”
But that won’t necessarily bring peace. In fact, “without a comprehensive political solution that takes into account the social roots of these groups, it is likely that the Resistance Axis will once again resort to its local social bases of influence, which (…) will allow it reconfigure again.
The analysis, aimed at an audience made up of Spanish soldiers, considered, before the current campaign of air attacks, the Iranian nuclear program as “the only current element of Iranian security strategy on which the regime can act with any likelihood of success.” to achieve a definitive deterrent against future Israeli or American aggression.”
The analyst was already betting on the worst scenario: “It seems that The decision has already been made and the Iranian regime’s bet is to acquire the capacity to produce the nuclear bomb. as soon as possible”, although that decision could accelerate the attacks against Tehran, as has happened. Now, in the future, a change in Iranian defense doctrine could lead to “exploring the possibility of conduct a nuclear test that could serve as the ultimate ‘insurance policy’ against Israel and the US.”
At that time the ayatollah was Jamenei alive. Now it is his son who is chosen to rule the country. With this designation, the possibility of one last scenario that Poza values is greatly reduced: “A radical change in the attitude of the ruling elites of Iran, towards a less confrontational attitude“That option failed at the negotiating table that preceded the war.
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