The promise of relief in the pocket through the Income Tax reform has not yet translated into an improvement in the economic perception of the electorate. According to the survey released by Quaest, this Wednesday (11), 48% of Brazilians indicate that they did not notice concrete effects of the tax exemption for those who receive up to R$5 thousand reais per month, which helps to explain the deterioration in the government’s assessment in different surveys released last week.
The mismatch between announced policies and the population’s real perception was one of the points discussed in this Friday’s episode (13) of Risk Mappolicy program of the InfoMoney. According to an analysis presented in the program, the difficulty lies in the fact that many voters do not directly identify financial gain in their daily lives.
“It’s a virtual benefit. It’s very difficult for voters to perceive a gain that doesn’t appear directly in the account”, said political scientist Renato Dolci in an interview with the program.
The assessment is that, even with the expectation of an increase in disposable income, the effect ends up being diluted in a scenario of pressure on the cost of living. In practice, voters tend to evaluate the economy based on everyday experience — especially the prices of basic products.
Perception weighs more than public policy
This mismatch has become one of the central challenges of the government’s political strategy at this point in the electoral cycle. Even when macroeconomic indicators improve, popular perception tends to respond more quickly to the cost of living and negative news.
XP policy analyst, João Paulo Machado, recalled that the beginning of the year concentrates relevant expenses for families, such as taxes and school expenses, which can also reduce the feeling of financial improvement. Still, the predominant assessment in political circles is that part of the electorate does not clearly understand the mechanism of tax policy.
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“In some way, even if this effect could be felt, again, it’s the beginning of the year, you have more costs, there is an increase in the tax burden, which is another point that despite the government saying that it exempts income tax, there are other relevant tax burdens in the citizen’s pocket, such as, for example, IPTU, which he feels right at the beginning, now in February the first rate comes. So, it is difficult for him to feel this effect”, added Dolci.
This perception difficulty tends to be greater among lower-income voters, precisely those who would benefit from the expansion of the Income Tax exemption range.
For political scientist Renato Dolci, there is also a difficulty for the federal government in communicating initiatives.
“When we look at President Lula’s speeches, he has moved a lot away from this debate, he has spoken about the end of bets, he has spoken about subjects that are not subjects with such a clear characteristic of election, of approval, he seems a little outside of this movement”, he stated.
Political narrative in dispute
The interpretation of the effect of the measure divides government and opposition. Government members argue that the impact of the reform tends to appear throughout the year, as the economic cycle advances and families reorganize their budget.
“In the government’s assessment, these first three months, the perception that they are receiving this gain from the income tax reform has not yet reached the citizen’s pocket. On the other hand, the opposition tends to assess that, in fact, because this benefit does not drip into the account, it is on the contrary, you stop paying, so obviously you are earning more, but it is not dripping into your account externally. So, in general, the opposition has been insisting that there will not, in fact, be a pact in the electorate that is fundamental to opening a margin in this election”, concluded Machado.
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The predominant reading at the moment is that economic perception continues to be a determining factor for voter mood — and can directly influence the government’s performance in electoral polls throughout 2026.
O Risk Mapnew policy program for the InfoMoneyairs every Friday, starting at 5am, on YouTube and your favorite podcast player.
