ANALYSIS || One of the most confusing features of this war is that it is virtually impossible to assess the sincerity and veracity of statements by both the US and Iran regarding what is happening.
Iran’s ceasefire and this week’s peace talks hang in the balance as tensions escalate around the strategic waterway that symbolizes Tehran’s new advantage and a conflict that critics say has slipped out of President Donald Trump’s control.
On Friday, Trump stated that Iran had “agreed to everything”, which sparked a rally in the stock market, fueled by hopes that the war could end soon. But on Sunday this looked like another case of exaggerated diplomacy and the president once again threatened to destroy Iran’s bridges and power plants, with Tehran once again closing the Strait of Hormuz. The lack of mutual trust and fears of a total return to war became clear after the US Navy fired at and seized an Iranian-flagged freighter that was trying to break the blockade of Tehran’s fleet.
This about-face is typical of Trump’s wartime leadership, which oscillates between triumphant predictions of imminent peace and alarming threats of violence. His opponents see chaos and the absence of a plan, while the president’s advisers insist that he is masterfully exerting his influence in a way that will force Iran to concede.
But Trump’s fog of war faces its next reality check, as a second round of talks between the US and Iran in Pakistan approaches, before the expected end of the ceasefire – the deadline ends this Wednesday, according to Trump. The next few days may reveal whether Trump’s familiar intimidation strategy is capable of creating diplomatic openings or whether its effectiveness is diminishing. If he fails, Trump may once again face the choice of stepping up US military involvement to try to find a way out, with potentially disastrous results for the global economy and his own declining popularity.
One of the most confusing features of this war is that it is virtually impossible to assess the sincerity and veracity of statements by both the US and Iran about what is happening.
No one outside Iran can say exactly which leaders are making the decisions following waves of assassinations of regime figures. This makes it difficult to assess its diplomatic strategy.
But Trump’s mood toward war — at least as reflected in his social media statements — is constantly changing. U.S. officials were cited last week in multiple reports saying Iran was willing to stop supporting allied groups such as Hezbollah and Hamas and hand over its stockpiles of highly enriched uranium. This would represent a huge victory for the Trump Administration. But modern history and Iran’s recent statements and behavior raise questions.
However, behind the rhetoric and belligerence, there are compelling reasons why both sides avoid resuming fighting. Perhaps both are intensifying tensions ahead of possible negotiations in order to create diplomatic space.
Trump’s repeated insistence that a deal is within reach suggests waning enthusiasm for a war that has inflicted a heavy economic and political cost in a midterm election year. The Wall Street Journal reported on Saturday that despite his bravado, Trump harbors serious fears about the consequences and risks of escalation.
For the Iranian regime, survival when the war ends would be a victory in itself. Meanwhile, the US blockade of Iranian ports threatens to turn a devastated economy into social collapse. Weeks of relentless bombing have caused massive devastation that will cost billions of euros to rebuild.
“Mr. Nice is over”
The Administration is signaling that it believes it can break Tehran’s resistance by increasing pressure.
On Sunday’s “State of the Union,” CNN’s Jake Tapper asked Energy Secretary Chris Wright to explain why his boss posted on social media that “it’s over for Mr. Nice” and that he would bomb every bridge and power plant in Iran if its leaders didn’t accept the deal the U.S. is offering.
“The president is looking to get the most out of it,” Wright said. He said he was “not worried” as the “rumor and unrest” in Iran revealed a disintegrating regime and that the end of the war was “not very far away”.
Wright also praised the administration for “fantastically” handling the energy shock caused by the war, which caused gasoline prices to exceed $4 per gallon.
US Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz on Sunday painted a similar picture of rising stock markets, stable oil prices and fragmentation in Iran’s leadership, saying the country has never been more isolated.
“Iran has no cards in hand and we are confident that they will come to the table and finally give up their obsession with possessing a nuclear weapon,” Waltz said on CBS’s “Face the Nation.”
“We are reducing their capabilities. Their military is in shambles. Their missile program is in shambles. And now let’s hope that, diplomatically, they do it the easy way, rather than the hard way, by finally giving up on this illegal ambition,” Waltz said.
Such expectations place enormous pressure on Vice President JD Vance, who has led US diplomacy. CNN reported last week that Trump is questioning those around him about the performance of his number two, after the failure of a first round of negotiations.
Iran, for its part, contradicts US claims that it is ready to give in.
Its main negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, told state media that, although “progress has been made” at the diplomatic level, there continue to be significant differences regarding the strait and nuclear issues. He further stated that Iran would not deliver enriched uranium, which the US president refers to as “nuclear dust”.
Like Trump, Ghalibaf, who serves as speaker of the Iranian parliament, addresses national audiences inside and outside the government and is taking the toughest stance possible ahead of any negotiations.
Trump said on Sunday that US representatives were on their way to Islamabad for talks. Iran has not yet publicly confirmed that negotiations will take place.
Like the US, Iran appears to believe it has the upper hand.
But the evidence and developments in a complex situation do not fully corroborate the administration’s claims of a huge success.
US and Israeli airstrikes have certainly caused intense damage to Iranian forces, the military industrial complex, and missile and drone arsenals. But the regime survives. The Iranian people were unable to revolt and overthrow their oppressors.
The collateral damage for the US was severe. NATO’s cohesion is at stake amid Trump’s fury that member states have avoided a war they opposed. Trump threatened — though did not follow through — with a warning that Iranian civilization could die, in one of the most blunt statements ever from a US president. And his Administration spent the past week clashing with Pope Leo XIV and questioning his anti-war theology.
Democrats, aware of polls showing that Trump’s approval rating has fallen sharply due to the war — as low as 37% in a new NBC News/SurveyMonkey poll released Sunday — are portraying him as someone “stuck” on the Iran issue and out of ideas.
“The enriched uranium is still there. We have a more intransigent regime in Iran. Khamenei Jr. actually wants to develop nuclear weapons. Does anyone believe we actually have more influence over the Strait of Hormuz? We have less. China has more influence in Iran,” Democratic Congressman Ro Khanna told ABC.
The war has already exceeded the six-week threshold initially suggested by authorities as its maximum duration by more than a week. Trump has never been under so much pressure to end it — and to show he will neutralize Iran, rather than embolden a sworn enemy of the United States.
