Any normal interpretation of electoral science would describe Labour’s recent (07/05) performance as a shambles. But Keir Starmer is rather an exception to the rule, as he emerges slightly injured from a very unpleasant situation.
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They can be described as indulgently painful for Labour. They included heavy losses in council seats, both in the Midlands and the north of England, and in London, where far-right Reform not only won hundreds of seats but managed to bring the borough of Havering, which is part of the wider metropolitan area, under its control for the first time. The ruling party also came under strong pressure from the left in the British capital, with the Greens winning mayoralties for the first time, specifically in its suburbs.
In total, to date Labor has recorded a loss of 1,380 seats, while the Conservatives have also recorded significant losses of 551). Nigel Farage’s Reform is the big winner, winning 1,426 seats and holding a majority in twelve city councils. Greens and Liberal Democrats also made significant gains, increasing their number of seats (367 and 152 respectively).
In Wales, where elections were held for the national parliament (Sened), things didn’t turn out any better, as Labor suffered a real humiliation, falling to a third of its percentage from the previous contest in 2021 (11.1% from 36.2%), with First Minister Elaine Morgan stepping down after losing her seat. A negative image in Scotland too, with the party gathering 45,000 fewer votes than in 2021 and Reform being recorded in its maiden appearance second in terms of the regional vote.
Dolphins
Given the above facts, how to explain the contradictory position of British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who, despite speaking of a “difficult day”, added that he will not give up and underlined that he remains “determined” to carry out the changes he promised? The plausible answer lies in the electoral performance of his main intra-party rivals. Dolphins Andy Burnham, Angela Rayner and Wes Streeting saw their districts swept.
“Starmer is being saved by the fact that the ‘natural contenders’ for the leadership are seeing their own base withering away,” veteran election analyst Robert Hayward told the BBC, already on the first night of the election. For Rayner, who sees Thameside, where she holds her parliamentary seat, slipping from Labor control due to the rise of Reform, and former Manchester mayor Burnham, whose efforts to help stem the spread have fallen on deaf ears, the party’s disintegration creates a sense that they are hardly convincingly articulating an alternative to the leadership (of party and country). The same applies to the elected in London Streeting.
“Voters didn’t just reject Starmer but also his challengers,” says his columnist, David Maddox. He adds: “Few Labor MPs privately agree with Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy’s analysis that ‘now is the wrong time to change the pilot’.” But the question is, who could replace him?” At the moment, opinion within the party is divided, with Energy Secretary Ed Miliband at odds with Lammy, arguing – according to British media – that Starmer should present a Tony Blair-style “roadmap to exit”.
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Meanwhile, the prime minister himself appears to be preparing his counter-attack, with his advisers preparing a speech “characteristic of restarting the reform project”. “He has been preparing for this for months,” says his government correspondent, Rowena Mason, stressing that he is not planning a resignation or an exit plan, and although he acknowledges defeat, he believes there is plenty of time until the national elections in 2029.
Beyond the plans of the government staff, the cabals and the damage management, there is another political factor for which Starmer seems indispensable. The name of this one? Nigel Farage. “Personally, I will be very sad to see the Prime Minister go – he is our greatest asset,” he told supporters in Havering. Farage’s remark was interpreted as justification by those who accused the Labor leader of making the Reform leader his main political rival, thus discounting his victory. For others, Starmer’s attempt to show Farage and his hyper-humanist, personalist party as the main opponent of Labour, improves the chances of forming a front to intercept the Reform phenomenon, in the logic of regrouping former voters.
“How will we stop Farage’s party winning the next general election?” veteran congressman John McDonnell recently asked. However, the issue that seems to be plaguing the historic party is not that Starmer is not the right person to carry out such a mission, but that no one else seems capable.
