Experts say that activity was above expectations in the 1st quarter; some credit performance to the government’s benefits package
The 1.1% growth in GDP (Gross Domestic Product) in the 1st quarter of 2026 consolidated among economists the assessment that Brazilian activity started the year stronger than expected by the market.
This Friday (May 29, 2026) by IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) showed widespread expansion between agriculture, industry and services, in addition to the recovery of consumption and investments.
Among the common points in the analyzes is the reading that the economy remains resilient even in an environment of high interest rates. Experts also highlight the strength of the job market, rising incomes and fiscal stimuli as factors that supported domestic demand.
Pablo Spyer, advisor to Ancord (National Association of Brokers and Distributors of Securities, Exchange and Commodities), stated that the data reinforces the resistance of economic activity.
“The number shows an economy that is still strong in the short term, supported by agriculture, consumption and government stimulus”he declared.
Market sees resilient activity
The economist at SulAmérica Investimentos, Mariana Rodrigues, said that the performance interrupted a period of almost stability in the economy and should lead the Central Bank to review official projections.
“This estimate now carries a clear upward bias, converging towards a scenario that had not yet been incorporated by the monetary authority”he stated.
Carlos Lopes, economist at BV bank, assessed that the result had better quality than in previous quarters due to the strength of domestic demand and private investment.
“It was a GDP reinforced here by the good local performance of the economy”these.
According to him, the increase in savings on the part of families helped to maintain high consumption even in an environment of restrictive interest rates and pressured inflation.
Fiesp (Federation of Industries of the State of São Paulo) highlighted that the advancement of the industry helped to sustain the quarter’s results. The entity maintained its GDP growth projection of 1.9% in 2026.
GCB’s chief strategist, Roberto Dumas, stated that the activity’s performance also reflected stimulus measures adopted by the government, but assessed that this could generate future effects on interest rates and fiscal risk.
“Good news on the real economy front, although largely stimulated or driven by government benefits”he declared.
André Caruso, CEO of Pilar Capital, said that the numbers indicate an improvement in activity, especially in segments linked to the real estate market, but stated that the scenario still requires caution due to the cost of credit.
“GDP opens a window of opportunity for the real estate market, but the cost of money still requires prudence”he stated.
Economists expect slowdown
Despite the positive assessment of the quarter’s results, some economists see a slowdown in the economy in the coming months. The expectation is that the effects of the Selic rate at 14.75% per year will reduce the pace of activity in the 2nd semester.
Carlos Lopes stated that the current quarter already indicates a loss of strength in the economy.
“The first signs for the 2nd quarter are of a significant slowdown, perhaps growth closer to zero”he declared.
Compared to the same period in 2025, GDP grew 1.8%.
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